Match Info

K League 1 - Round 23

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Laola1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Laola1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Gwangju		Pohang Steelers

	1	X	2
	3.40	3.00	2.10	Watch
	3.50	3.10	2.10	Watch
	4.00	3.05	1.84
	3.54	3.13	2.38
	3.53	3.07	2.2	Watch
	3.35	3.05	2.35
	3.66	3.14	2.10	Watch
	3.25	3	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↓ (4.25)	3.07 ↓ (3.14)	2.17 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
26.5%

Draw
30.4%

Pohang Steelers
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

29.7%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

29.4%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Pohang Steelers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pohang Steelers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pohang Steelers than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pohang Steelers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Gwangju - Pohang Steelers Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Gwangju will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Pohang will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pohang: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Kyeong-min (G) 22. Kwon Sung-Yun 4. van Grunsven T. 6. Ahn Young-Kyu (C) 17. Joao Pedro 40. Shin Chang-Moo 10. Choi Kyoung-Rok 37. Ri Yong-jik 88. Moon Min-seo 11. Fridjonsson H. 18. Iredale J.	29. Hong Sung-min (G) 36. Kim H. 4. Jeon Min-kwang (C) 20. Park Chan-Yong 2. Eo Jeong-Won 40. Ki Sung-Yueng 16. Kim Dong-Jin 77. Wanderson 70. Hwang Seo-Woong 10. Tranziska J. 37. Jung Han-Min
Substitutes
50. Ba Loua A. 9. Ha Seung-Un 20. Im Seung-Kyum 2. Jang Seok-Hwan 8. Ju Se-Jong 23. Kim Dong-Hwa (G) 21. Kim Jong-Suk 70. Kim Woo-jin 14. Yu Je-Ho	18. Cho Sang-Hyeok 11. da Rocha Junior J. 5. Jin Si-woo 25. Jorge Teixeira 13. Kang Min-Jun 3. Kim Ye-Sung 14. Lee Chang-Woo 7. Won Ki-Jong 1. Yun Pyeong-Guk (G)
Coaches
Lee J.	Park Tae-Ha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Tranziska J. ⚽, Park Chan-Yong (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Hwang Seo-Woong ↓, Kang Min-Jun ↑,
53', Ri Yong-jik 🟨,
59', Ki Sung-Yueng ↓, Lee Chang-Woo ↑,
62', Lee J. 🟨,
68', Moon Min-seo ↓, Yu Je-Ho ↑,
68', Ri Yong-jik ↓, Kim Woo-jin ↑,
69', Jung Han-Min ↓, Won Ki-Jong ↑,
74', Kwon Sung-Yun ↓, Ha Seung-Un ↑,
82', Shin Chang-Moo 🟨,
82', Shin Chang-Moo ↓, Ba Loua A. ↑,
82', Choi Kyoung-Rok ↓, Kim Jong-Suk ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Iredale J. ⚽, Kim Woo-jin (A),
86', Jeon Min-kwang ↓, Jin Si-woo ↑,
86', Tranziska J. ↓, Jorge Teixeira ↑,
90+7', 1 - 2, Wanderson ⚽, Won Ki-Jong (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 1.

Gwangju has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pohang has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Pohang might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 18:34. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Gwangju won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Pohang	31	11	7	13	28:37	-9	40
12	Gwangju FC ✔	31	2	12	17	25:66	-41	18

Last Results with these Odds

Pohang Steelers - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 48.42%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
08.08.26	Bucheon - Gwangju	0:0 ✺
02.08.26	Daejeon Citizen - Gwangju	2:0 ✺
South Korean Cup
29.07.26	Gwangju - Cheonan City	1:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
26.07.26	Gwangju - Jeju	1:2 ✺
22.07.26	Gwangju - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TLWLT
- Pohang Steelers
South Korean K-League 1
08.08.26	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	0:2 ✺
01.08.26	Pohang Steelers - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	Pohang Steelers - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	0:2 ✺
22.07.26	FC Seoul - Pohang Steelers	3:1 ✺
18.07.26	Jeju - Pohang Steelers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
11.07.26	Gwangju - Pohang Steelers	0:3
22.04.26	Pohang Steelers - Gwangju	1:0
10.08.25	Pohang Steelers - Gwangju	1:0
18.05.25	Pohang Steelers - Gwangju	0:1
22.03.25	Gwangju - Pohang Steelers	2:3
13.09.24	Gwangju - Pohang Steelers	2:1
28.05.24	Gwangju - Pohang Steelers	0:1

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