Match Info

J1 League - Round 19

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Lemon Gas Stadium (Hiratsuka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Shonan Bellmare		Fagiano Okayama

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.88	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.85
	2.43	3.07	2.92	Watch
	2.61	3.16	3
	2.57	3.1	2.95	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.55	3.15	2.97	Watch
	2.46	3.1	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.38)	3.09 ↑ (2.88)	2.92 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shonan Bellmare
37.3%

Draw
30.4%

Fagiano Okayama
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

31.5%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

31.2%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

Shonan Bellmare - Fagiano Okayama Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Shonan Bellmare will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shonan Bellmare: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Shonan Bellmare (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Okayama (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 2 - 50%). Okayama (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kamifukumoto N. (G) 22. Oiwa K. 4. Tachi K. 5. Suzuki J. 37. Suzuki Y. 15. Okuno K. 3. Hata T. 18. Ikeda M. 13. Hiraoka T. 10. Suzuki A. 27. Luiz Phellype	49. Brodersen S. (G) 2. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 43. Suzuki Y. 39. Sato R. 24. Fujita I. 14. Tabei R. 50. Kato H. 27. Kimura T. 8. Esaka A. 22. Ichimi K.
Substitutes
14. Barada A. 50. Fujii T. 20. Ishibashi S. 16. Nemoto R. 9. Oda Y. 25. Okuno H. 8. Ono K. 31. Sanada K. (G) 33. Takahashi N.	4. Abe K. 45. Browne N. 19. Iwabuchi H. 33. Kamiya Yuta 21. Kawakami K. (G) 99. Lucao 28. Matsumoto M. 7. Takeuchi R. 88. Yanagi T.
Coaches
Yamaguchi S.	Kiyama T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', Luiz Phellype 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Sato R. ⚽, Tabei R. (A),
45+2', Okuno K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Okuno K. ↓, Barada A. ↑,
61', Hiraoka T. ↓, Okuno H. ↑,
64', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Luiz Phellype ⚽, Hata T. (A),
74', Kimura T. ↓, Yanagi T. ↑,
74', Kato H. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
80', Tachi K. 🟨,
81', Luiz Phellype ↓, Oda Y. ↑,
87', Tabei R. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
87', Esaka A. ↓, Browne N. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 13).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Matsumoto K. (Knee Injury) Nagai T. (Calf Injury) Tamura S. (Thigh Injury) Ze Ricardo (Knee Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 1.4:0.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Shonan Bellmare won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J1 League
25.05.25	Albirex Niigata - Shonan Bellmare	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
21.05.25	Shonan Bellmare - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
17.05.25	Shonan Bellmare - Yokohama FC	0:1 ✺
11.05.25	Tokyo Verdy - Shonan Bellmare	0:2 ✺
07.05.25	Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWLWL
- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
25.05.25	Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia	2:2 ✺
18.05.25	Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Fagiano Okayama	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Vissel Kobe - Fagiano Okayama	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
12.07.23	Shonan Bellmare - Fagiano Okayama	2:0
Japan J2 League
29.10.17	Shonan Bellmare - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
29.04.17	Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare	0:2
10.08.14	Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare	0:0
05.04.14	Shonan Bellmare - Fagiano Okayama	2:0

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