Match Info

J1 League - Round 31

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Lemon Gas Stadium (Hiratsuka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Shonan Bellmare		Kawasaki Frontale

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.56	Watch
	4.65	4.05	1.62	Watch
	5.18	4.43	1.63
	4.91	4.29	1.60	Watch
	4.84	4.18	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.92 ↑ (3.76)	4.21 ↑ (3.79)	1.61 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shonan Bellmare
19.2%

Draw
22.4%

Kawasaki Frontale
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

24.8%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

23.7%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shonan Bellmare's form might have worsened.

Kawasaki Frontale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kawasaki Frontale's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kawasaki Frontale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	0%	85%

Shonan Bellmare - Kawasaki Frontale Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Kawasaki (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.75 - Kawasaki (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Kawasaki Frontale will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 1 - 25%). Kawasaki (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Sanada K. (G) 22. Oiwa K. 4. Tachi K. 47. Nakano S. 37. Suzuki Y. 15. Okuno K. 66. Matsumoto H. 7. Onose K. 72. Nitta R. 18. Ikeda M. 10. Suzuki A.	98. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 31. van Wermeskerken S. 22. Uremovic F. 5. Sasaki A. 13. Miura S. 19. Kawahara S. 6. Yamamoto Y. 17. Ito T. 14. Wakizaka Y. 23. Marcinho 9. Erison
Substitutes
14. Barada A. 50. Fujii T. 13. Hiraoka T. 20. Ishibashi S. 27. Luiz Phellype 8. Ono K. 28. Ota S. 1. Popp W. (G) 29. Watanabe K.	41. Ienaga A. 1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 27. Kamihashi R. 11. Kobayashi Y. 24. Miyagi T. 91. Romanic L. 8. Tachibanada K. 15. Tanabe S. 39. Tsuchiya K.
Coaches
Yamaguchi S.	Hasebe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Wakizaka Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Erison (Pen),
62', Marcinho ↓, Miyagi T. ↑,
65', Okuno K. 🟨,
65', Nitta R. ↓, Luiz Phellype ↑,
69', Uremovic F. 🟨,
70', Erison 🟨,
71', van Wermeskerken S. 🟨,
74', Suzuki Y. ↓, Fujii T. ↑,
74', Okuno K. ↓, Barada A. ↑,
78', Erison ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
78', Matsumoto H. 🟨,
80', 0 - 2, Ito T. ⚽,
82', 1 - 2, Tachi K. ⚽, Ikeda M. (A),
84', Nakano S. ↓, Ishibashi S. ↑,
84', Ikeda M. ↓, Hiraoka T. ↑,
90+1', van Wermeskerken S. ↓, Kamihashi R. ↑,
90+1', Yamamoto Y. ↓, Tachibanada K. ↑,
90+2', Ito T. ↓, Tanabe S. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 0.

Recent form of Shonan Bellmare has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kawasaki is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Kawasaki is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Kamifukumoto N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nagai T. (Calf Injury) Tamura S. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Kawasaki: Jesiel (Inactive) Kurumaya S. (Calf Injury) Lee G. (Knee Injury) Maruyama Y. (Knee Injury) Oshima R. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 22:37. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Shonan Bellmare won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:18. (average 0.9:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Kawasaki Frontale - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50.27%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J1 League
20.09.25	Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Kashima Antlers - Shonan Bellmare	3:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
07.09.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shonan Bellmare	4:1 ✺
03.09.25	Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
31.08.25	Shonan Bellmare - Gamba Osaka	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LLLWL
- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League
20.09.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kawasaki Frontale	0:3 ✺
Japan J League Cup
07.09.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:2 ET ✺
03.09.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
31.08.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
02.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Shonan Bellmare	2:0
26.06.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Shonan Bellmare	1:1
24.02.24	Shonan Bellmare - Kawasaki Frontale	1:2
24.09.23	Shonan Bellmare - Kawasaki Frontale	0:2
Japan J League Cup
18.06.23	Shonan Bellmare - Kawasaki Frontale	2:3
26.03.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Shonan Bellmare	0:0
Japan J1 League
03.03.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Shonan Bellmare	1:1

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