Match Info

J1 League - Round 3

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium (Kawasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kawasaki Frontale		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.5	2.45	Watch
	2.52	3.5	2.48	Watch
	2.16	3.85	3.3
	2.62	3.64	2.52	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.5
	2.54	3.55	2.66	Watch
	2	3.8	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.02)	3.61 ↓ (3.87)	2.75 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kawasaki Frontale
39.2%

Draw
26.3%

Tokyo
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

24.4%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kawasaki Frontale's form might have worsened.

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tokyo's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	58.3%	8.3%

Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Kawasaki will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tokyo will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Kawasaki (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Brodersen S. (G) 29. Yamahara R. 2. Matsunagane Y. 3. Taniguchi H. 13. Miura S. 19. Kawahara S. 8. Tachibanada K. 41. Ienaga A. 14. Wakizaka Y. 17. Ito T. 9. Erison	81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 2. Muroya S. 24. Scholz A. 17. Inamura H. 5. Nagatomo Y. 16. Sato K. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 22. Endo K. 9. Marcelo Ryan 26. Nagakura M.
Substitutes
1. Hayasaka Y. (G) 18. Konno K. 23. Marcinho 24. Miyagi T. 30. Noda H. 16. Ozeki Y. 91. Romanic L. 22. Uremovic F. 6. Yamamoto Y.	42. Hashimoto K. 37. Koizumi K. 3. Morishige M. 39. Nakagawa T. 15. Omori R. 55. Otani D. C. 23. Sato R. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 71. Yamada F.
Coaches
Hasebe S.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Marcelo Ryan ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Yamahara R. ⚽, Wakizaka Y. (A),
33', Ito T. 🟨,
37', 1 - 2, Muroya S. ⚽, Sato K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Erison ↓, Romanic L. ↑,
57', Ienaga A. ↓, Konno K. ↑,
57', Ito T. ↓, Marcinho ↑,
59', Wakizaka Y. 🟨,
66', Endo K. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
69', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
73', Kawahara S. ↓, Yamamoto Y. ↑,
81', Sato K. ↓, Otani D. C. ↑,
81', Tokiwa K. ↓, Koizumi K. ↑,
88', Tachibanada K. ↓, Ozeki Y. ↑,
90', Taniguchi H. 🟨,
90+3', Otani D. C. 🟨,
90+4', Nagatomo Y. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kawasaki won 4.

Kawasaki could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Kawasaki: Lee G. (Knee Injury) Maruyama Y. (Knee Injury) Oshima R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Tawaratsumida K. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Tokyo: Endo K. (Injury) Marcelo Ryan (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kawasaki won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 39:14. (average 2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Kawasaki won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1:0.6).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 11.22% Kawasaki Frontale: 6.04%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
7	Kawasaki Frontale	4	1	3	0	8:6	2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Kawasaki Frontale - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.74%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League
14.02.26	JEF United Chiba - Kawasaki Frontale	0:1 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashiwa Reysol	5:3 ✺
06.12.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kawasaki Frontale	4:0 ✺
30.11.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLLT
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
14.02.26	Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1 penalties ✺
06.02.26	Tokyo - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties ✺
06.12.25	Tokyo - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Vissel Kobe - Tokyo	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
15.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	2:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
20.09.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	0:1
29.03.25	Tokyo - Kawasaki Frontale	0:3
11.08.24	Tokyo - Kawasaki Frontale	0:3
30.03.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	3:0
15.09.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	1:0
12.05.23	Tokyo - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1
05.11.22	Tokyo - Kawasaki Frontale	2:3

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