Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 9

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Daio Wasabi Stayen (Sint-Truiden)

Referee: Visser L. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Denmark	DAZN
Ecuador	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Paraguay	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	DAZN
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN


	Sint-Truidense		Genk

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.55	3.65	1.98	Watch
	3.82	3.85	1.96
	3.63	3.77	1.98	Watch
	2.8	3.7	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (2.8)	3.71 ↑ (3.7)	2.01 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sint-Truidense
27.1%

Draw
25.6%

Genk
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

25%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

25.2%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sint-Truidense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sint-Truidense's form might have worsened.

Genk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Genk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sint-Truidense than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sint-Truidense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genk than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	16.7%	75%

Sint Truidense - Genk Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Sint-Truidense will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Genk will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genk: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sint-Truidense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Genk (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kokubo L. (G) 20. Van Helden R. 5. Taniguchi S. (C) 26. Musliu V. 3. Hata T. 6. Yamamoto R. 8. Sissako A. 60. Vanwesemael R. 13. Ito R. 10. Sebaoui I. 42. Goto K.	1. Van Crombrugge H. (G) 77. El Ouahdi Z. 3. Sadick M. 6. Smets M. 27. Nkuba K. 24. Sattlberger N. 8. Heynen B. (C) 10. Ito J. 17. Hrosovsky P. 32. Adedeji-Sternberg N. 99. Erabi J.
Substitutes
11. Delpupo I. 33. Diriken A. 9. Ferrari A. 22. Janssens W. 18. Jukleroed S. 34. Lambotte H. 21. Lendfers M. (G) 38. Matsuzawa K. 7. Muja A.	21. Bangoura I. 28. Brughmans L. (G) 20. Karetsas K. 18. Kayembe J. 44. Kongolo J. 29. Mirisola R. 9. Oh Hyeon-Gyu 34. Palacios A. 7. Steuckers J.
Coaches
Vrancken W.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Heynen B. (Own goal),
35', Sissako A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', Van Helden R. 🟥,
57', 1 - 1, Ito J. ⚽,
60', Musliu V. 🟨,
64', Goto K. ↓, Ferrari A. ↑,
64', Sebaoui I. ↓, Matsuzawa K. ↑,
65', Vanwesemael R. 🟨,
71', Heynen B. 🟨,
74', Sattlberger N. ↓, Karetsas K. ↑,
74', Erabi J. ↓, Oh Hyeon-Gyu ↑,
74', Adedeji-Sternberg N. ↓, Steuckers J. ↑,
88', Heynen B. ↓, Bangoura I. ↑,
88', Ito J. ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,
90', Karetsas K. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 2, Oh Hyeon-Gyu ⚽, Mirisola R. (A),
90+5', Kokubo L. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: ) and 14 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sint-Truidense won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Genk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Genk is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Genk: Heymans D. (Ankle Injury) Sor Y. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sint-Truidense won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:40. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sint-Truidense won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:23. (average 1.4:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sint-Truidense VV
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
21.09.25	Club Brugge - Sint-Truidense	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Sint-Truidense - Westerlo	0:3 ✺
29.08.25	Cercle Brugge - Sint-Truidense	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Zulte Waregem - Sint-Truidense	0:2 ✺
17.08.25	Sint-Truidense - RAAL La Louvière	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLTWW
- Racing Genk
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Glasgow Rangers - Genk	0:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
21.09.25	Genk - Saint-Gilloise	1:2 ✺
17.09.25	Genk - Charleroi	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Anderlecht - Genk	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Genk - Zulte Waregem	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Cup
07.01.25	Sint-Truidense - Genk	0:4
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
01.12.24	Sint-Truidense - Genk	2:2
20.10.24	Genk - Sint-Truidense	3:2
28.01.24	Sint-Truidense - Genk	1:1
24.09.23	Genk - Sint-Truidense	3:3
05.03.23	Sint-Truidense - Genk	2:2
03.09.22	Genk - Sint-Truidense	0:0

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