Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 25

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Yunost Stadium (Smorgon)

Referee: Dmitriev D. (Blr)


	Smorgon		BATE Borisov

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.3	2.54
	2.63	3.28	2.59
	2.6	3.35	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (3.13)	3.31 ↑ (2.9)	2.51 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Smorgon
34.8%

Draw
28.1%

BATE Borisov
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

32%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

31.7%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Smorgon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Smorgon's performance.

BATE Borisov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Smorgon than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Smorgon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BATE Borisov than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Smorgon - BATE Borisov Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Smorgon will win (votes: 1 - 20%). BATE will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Vasilyuchek V. (G) 27. Tishko A. 8. Maslovskiy V. 9. Chebotar V. 3. Intsoen C. 78. Yablonskiy M. 5. Firsov A. 6. Doumbia S. 17. Dukso M. (C) 77. Bogdanovich I. 25. Bamba L.	16. Sokol D. (G) 6. Moussakhanian H. 3. Rakhmanov A. 24. Rusenchik V. 66. Ageev A. 33. Sotnikov V. (C) 25. Neskoromnyi N. 7. Svirepa A. 8. Apanasevich K. 22. Yatskevich V. 10. Rusakov E.
Substitutes
18. Aliyu H. S. 19. Azarko M. (G) 91. Budko M. 13. Dayneko A. 4. Diallo M. 55. Dubovik T. 33. Fazylov A. 63. Kukhlejj R. 7. Levkovets A. 21. Yezhov R.	29. Charles Y. 77. Kargbo I. 21. Kiselev V. 18. Nikonorov N. 5. Osipov E. 15. Pashevich P. 47. Sakhonchik A. 35. Skopets A. (G) 14. Telesh M. 68. Zhulpa D.
Coaches
Dorokhovich S.	Kontsevoy A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Doumbia S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Chebotar V. ↓, Diallo M. ↑,
63', Bamba L. ↓, Aliyu H. S. ↑,
69', Apanasevich K. ↓, Charles Y. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Bogdanovich I. ⚽,
77', Rusakov E. ↓, Kiselev V. ↑,
78', Yablonskiy M. ↓, Levkovets A. ↑,
78', Yatskevich V. ↓, Kargbo I. ↑,
86', Dukso M. ↓, Dayneko A. ↑,
86', Svirepa A. ↓, Telesh M. ↑,
86', Rusenchik V. ↓, Zhulpa D. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Vysshaya Liga (Relegation) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Smorgon won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Smorgon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Smorgon won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:17. (average 1.1:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Smorgon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Smorgon
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
05.10.25	Slavia Mozyr - Smorgon	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Smorgon - Neman Grodno	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Smorgon - Dinamo Minsk	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Torpedo-BelAZ - Smorgon	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Smorgon - Naftan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 47.4 LWLWT
- BATE Borisov
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
03.10.25	BATE Borisov - ML Vitebsk	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Dinamo Brest - BATE Borisov	3:0 ✺
21.09.25	BATE Borisov - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Slutsk - BATE Borisov	0:3 ✺
30.08.25	BATE Borisov - Dinamo Minsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
26.05.25	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	2:2
28.11.24	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	7:4
06.07.24	Smorgon - BATE Borisov	0:0
17.09.23	Smorgon - BATE Borisov	1:2
29.04.23	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	2:0
12.09.21	Smorgon - BATE Borisov	1:3
01.05.21	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	1:0

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