Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 15

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Yunost Stadium (Smorgon)

Referee: Yasenovich E. (Blr)


	Smorgon		Gomel

	1	X	2
	4.4	3.4	1.66
	4.43	3.44	1.78
	4.2	3.7	1.7
	4.49	4.05	1.72	Watch
	4.6	3.88	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.42 ↓ (5.85)	3.69 ↓ (3.8)	1.72 ↑ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Smorgon
21%

Draw
25.1%

Gomel
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.3%

25.1%

58.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.2%

25.3%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Smorgon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Gomel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Smorgon than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gomel than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Smorgon - Gomel Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Gomel (2.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gomel will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Gomel (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Azarko M. (G) 20. Tonkevich V. 77. Bogdanovich I. 3. Intsoen C. 27. Tishko A. 7. Levkovets A. 17. Babich E. 2. Bamba M. 8. Maslovskiy V. 10. Sodikov S. 6. Doumbia S.	44. Kleshchuk S. (G) 3. Matveychik S. 16. Zayats I. 33. Chagovets Y. 20. Aliu L. 17. Yatskevich V. 8. Barsukov E. 10. Borodin D. 13. Aleksievich I. 2. Martinkevich V. 11. Butko A.
Substitutes
9. Chebotar V. 4. Diallo M. 16. Say D. (G) 23. Stankevich A. 78. Yablonskiy M.	70. Cheburakov K. 14. Davyskiba R. 1. Nechaev A. (G) 23. Potapenko A. 15. Shemruk A. 30. Troyakov E. 63. Waddou A.
Coaches
Dorokhovich S.	Gorovtsov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Matveychik S. ↓, Potapenko A. ↑,
46', 1 - 0, Doumbia S. ⚽, Sodikov S. (A),
48', 1 - 1, Butko A. ⚽, Martinkevich V. (A),
53', Barsukov E. 🟨,
55', Zayats I. 🟨,
62', Aleksievich I. ↓, Davyskiba R. ↑,
62', Barsukov E. ↓, Cheburakov K. ↑,
75', Tonkevich V. ↓, Yablonskiy M. ↑,
76', Zayats I. ↓, Troyakov E. ↑,
76', Borodin D. ↓, Waddou A. ↑,
80', Maslovskiy V. 🟨,
81', Sodikov S. ↓, Stankevich A. ↑,
83', Butko A. 🟨,
84', 2 - 1, Yatskevich V. (Own goal),
90', 3 - 1, Doumbia S. ⚽, Yablonskiy M. (A),
90+3', Doumbia S. ↓, Chebotar V. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Pershaya Liga and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Smorgon won 0.

Smorgon is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gomel has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Smorgon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gomel is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Smorgon won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:16. (average 0.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Smorgon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:11. (average 1:2.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Smorgon
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
27.06.25	Molodechno - Smorgon	2:1 ✺
20.06.25	Smorgon - Isloch Minsk	0:4 ✺
15.06.25	Vitebsk - Smorgon	2:1 ✺
01.06.25	Smorgon - Minsk	0:2 ✺
26.05.25	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLLLT
- FC Gomel
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
28.06.25	Gomel - ML Vitebsk	0:2 ✺
21.06.25	Dinamo Brest - Gomel	0:1 ✺
13.06.25	Gomel - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	0:2 ✺
01.06.25	Slutsk - Gomel	0:3 ✺
25.05.25	Gomel - Dinamo Minsk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
30.08.24	Gomel - Smorgon	2:1
19.04.24	Smorgon - Gomel	2:2
22.10.23	Smorgon - Gomel	0:3
26.05.23	Gomel - Smorgon	2:0
20.11.21	Gomel - Smorgon	0:0
26.06.21	Smorgon - Gomel	1:2
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
27.06.20	Gomel - Smorgon	1:1

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