Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday


	Sofapaka		Mathare United

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.2	4.15
	1.82	3.26	4.29	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2)	3.25 ↑ (3.12)	4.21 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sofapaka
50.3%

Draw
28%

Mathare United
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

29.3%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

28.2%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sofapaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Mathare United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathare United than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Sofapaka - Mathare United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Mathare United (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mathare United (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mathare United (votes: 2 - 100%).

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
75', 1 - 0, Ondimo E. ⚽,
76', 1 - 1, Masika M. W. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sofapaka won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Sofapaka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Sofapaka won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:25. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sofapaka won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.9:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sofapaka FC
Kenyan Premier League
27.04.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Sofapaka	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Sofapaka - Gor Mahia	1:1 ✺
04.04.25	Ulinzi Stars - Sofapaka	0:1 ✺
28.03.25	Talanta - Sofapaka	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Sofapaka - Nairobi City Stars	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TTWLW
- Mathare United
Kenyan Premier League
27.04.25	Mathare United - Tusker	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Bidco United - Mathare United	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Mathare United - Posta Rangers	3:2 ✺
28.03.25	Mathare United - Mara Sugar	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Mathare United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
21.09.24	Mathare United - Sofapaka	1:1
08.03.23	Sofapaka - Mathare United	1:0
08.01.23	Mathare United - Sofapaka	0:4
06.05.22	Mathare United - Sofapaka	Sofapaka awarded
20.10.21	Sofapaka - Mathare United	1:2
31.07.21	Mathare United - Sofapaka	2:1
09.01.21	Sofapaka - Mathare United	4:2

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