Match Info

Premier League - Round 26

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday


	Ulinzi Stars		Sofapaka

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.88	3.85
	1.93	2.94	4.05
	1.95	3.01	4.02	Watch
	1.95	2.75	4
	1.94	2.94	4.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (1.98)	2.9 ↓ (2.99)	4 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulinzi Stars
46.3%

Draw
31.1%

Sofapaka
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

30.4%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

24.6%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulinzi Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Sofapaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ulinzi Stars that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sofapaka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ulinzi Stars - Sofapaka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
76', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 2.

Ulinzi Stars is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sofapaka is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ulinzi Stars may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ulinzi Stars could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulinzi Stars won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
22.03.26	Nairobi United - Ulinzi Stars	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Ulinzi Stars - Gor Mahia	1:3 ✺
02.03.26	Bidco United - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
26.02.26	Ulinzi Stars - Kakamega Homeboyz	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Mara Sugar - Ulinzi Stars	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLLTL
- Sofapaka FC
Kenyan Premier League
21.03.26	Bidco United - Sofapaka	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Sofapaka - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
02.03.26	Mara Sugar - Sofapaka	3:1 ✺
26.02.26	Sofapaka - Police FC	0:2 ✺
20.02.26	Kakamega Homeboyz - Sofapaka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
24.11.25	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	1:3
04.04.25	Ulinzi Stars - Sofapaka	0:1
07.12.24	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	4:1
13.04.24	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
24.09.23	Ulinzi Stars - Sofapaka	1:0
Kenyan FKF Cup
29.04.23	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	1:2 penalties
Kenyan Premier League
13.04.23	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	2:2

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