Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday


	Sofapaka		Muranga Seal

	1	X	2
	2.72	2.72	2.62
	2.71	2.6	2.75
	2.75	2.79	2.7	Watch
	2.63	2.7	2.63
	2.7	2.96	2.68
	2.62	2.9	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (2.7)	2.78 ↓ (2.9)	2.66 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sofapaka
33.6%

Draw
32.5%

Muranga Seal
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

31.6%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

30.9%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sofapaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Muranga Seal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Muranga Seal than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Sofapaka - Muranga Seal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Ntamba M. ⚽,
30', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
64', 2 - 2, ⚽,
77', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League and 5).

Sofapaka has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Muranga is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Muranga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sofapaka won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sofapaka won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Muranga	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sofapaka FC
Kenyan Premier League
31.01.26	Gor Mahia - Sofapaka	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Sofapaka - AFC Leopards	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Shabana - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
09.01.26	Sofapaka - Bidco United	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Sofapaka - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLTT
- Muranga Seal
Kenyan Premier League
01.02.26	Muranga Seal - APS Bomet	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Ulinzi Stars - Muranga Seal	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Muranga Seal - Bidco United	2:1 ✺
14.01.26	Gor Mahia - Muranga Seal	3:2 ✺
10.01.26	Mathare United - Muranga Seal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
15.10.25	Muranga Seal - Sofapaka	1:2
14.05.25	Muranga Seal - Sofapaka	2:0
28.11.24	Sofapaka - Muranga Seal	0:1
09.03.24	Sofapaka - Muranga Seal	1:2

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