Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Shabana		Sofapaka

	1	X	2
	1.8	2.92	4.65
	1.84	2.79	5.22	Watch
	1.75	2.8	4.8
	1.75	3.09	5.4
	1.72	3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.79)	2.92 ↓ (3)	5.01 ↑ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shabana
51%

Draw
31%

Sofapaka
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

30.3%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

29.1%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shabana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Sofapaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shabana than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Shabana - Sofapaka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Nsugubo B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League).

Shabana has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sofapaka is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Shabana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Shabana is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Shabana won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Shabana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shabana FC
Kenyan Premier League
11.01.26	Shabana - Gor Mahia	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Shabana - Nairobi United	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	Kenya CB - Shabana	1:3 ✺
17.12.25	Shabana - Mara Sugar	0:0 ✺
12.12.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Shabana	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLWTT
- Sofapaka FC
Kenyan Premier League
09.01.26	Sofapaka - Bidco United	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Sofapaka - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
17.12.25	Mathare United - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Sofapaka - Tusker	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Kenya CB - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
26.01.25	Sofapaka - Shabana	0:1
23.10.24	Shabana - Sofapaka	0:1
04.05.24	Sofapaka - Shabana	0:1
16.12.23	Shabana - Sofapaka	4:1

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