Match Info

PARAGUAY: Copa Paraguay - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Paraguay	Tigo Sports


	Sol de América		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.8	2.2
				Watch
	3.44	2.94	2.25
	3.48	2.97	2.26	Watch
	3.37	2.86	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (2.39)	2.89 ↓ (2.9)	2.23 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sol de América
27.2%

Draw
31.7%

Libertad Asuncion
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

31.3%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

29.7%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sol de América has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sol de América's form might have worsened.

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Libertad Asuncion's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sol de América than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sol de América, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sol de América - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Medina B. (G) 8. Amarilla C. 21. Barrios V. 32. Caceres E. 4. Delvalle R. 25. Diaz F. 16. Gimenez A. 6. Jorge J. 17. Ojeda J. 19. Roa R. 7. Valdez D.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 26. Caballero H. 36. Cardozo Lucena A. 38. Del Valle S. 28. Fernandez M. 18. Franco I. 4. Gimenez N. 33. Piris I. 24. Santa C. R. 13. Silva A. 5. Viera D.
Substitutes
29. Cabrera L. 14. Diaz F. 2. Gimenez G. 22. Gonzalez M. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 11. Ortiz L. 18. Orue D.	9. Aguilar G. 7. Cardozo O. 19. Lezcano R. 2. Ramirez I. 16. Riveros C. 29. Rojas V. (G) 21. Sanabria L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Silva A. ↓, Lezcano R. ↑,
58', Roa R. ↓, Orue D. ↑,
58', Valdez D. ↓, Cabrera L. ↑,
61', Gimenez N. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
61', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Sanabria L. ↑,
64', Jorge J. 🟨,
66', Santa C. R. ↓, Cardozo O. ↑,
70', Barrios V. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
70', Diaz F. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
83', Caceres E. ↓, Diaz F. ↑,
85', Fernandez M. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
87', 🟨,
90+1', Medina B. 🟨,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Sanabria L. (Pen),
1, Cabrera L. (Pen),
2, Franco I. (Pen),
2, Jorge J. (Pen),
3, Aguilar G. (Pen),
3, Medina B. (Pen),
4, Lezcano R. (Pen),
4, Gonzalez M. (Pen),
5, Cardozo O. (Pen),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sol de América won 0.

Recent matches Sol de América is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Libertad is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Sol de América have a series of guest games.

Libertad will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Sol de América won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 14 matches and goals 17:42 (average 0.9:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Sol de América won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 6:24 (average 0.5:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sol de América
Paraguayan Primera Division
26.10.24	Tacuary - Sol de América	0:4 ✺
20.10.24	Sol de América - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
12.10.24	Olimpia Asuncion - Sol de América	1:1 ✺
Copa Paraguay
09.10.24	Cerro Porteño - Sol de América	1:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
04.10.24	General Caballero JLM - Sol de América	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.9 WLTWT
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.10.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
20.10.24	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
13.10.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Libertad Asuncion	2:1 ✺
05.10.24	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Copa Paraguay
02.10.24	Encarnación - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
11.09.24	Sol de América - Libertad Asuncion	0:1
10.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sol de América	4:1
18.02.24	Sol de América - Libertad Asuncion	1:2
Copa Paraguay
16.08.23	Sol de América - Libertad Asuncion	0:3
Paraguayan Primera Division
17.10.22	Sol de América - Libertad Asuncion	1:1
13.08.22	Libertad Asuncion - Sol de América	4:1
21.06.22	Sol de América - Libertad Asuncion	0:3

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