Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 14

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday


	South Melbourne		Port Melbourne Sharks

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.5	4.1	5.5
	1.41	4.3	6.2	Watch
	1.47	4.54	6.1
	1.48	4.42	6.1	Watch
	1.5	4	5.5
	1.49	4.23	6.19	Watch
	1.41	4.3	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.5)	4.27 ↓ (4.34)	5.97 ↑ (5.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
62.9%

Draw
21.6%

Port Melbourne Sharks
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

21.1%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

20.4%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Port Melbourne Sharks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Melbourne Sharks than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

South Melbourne - Port Melbourne Sharks Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. South Melbourne (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Diaz L. ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Diaz L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Victoria Premier League and 14 in the zone Relegation ~ Victoria Premier League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 5.

Each of the two teams has experienced multiple losses lately.

South Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, South Melbourne is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 41:24. (average 2.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, South Melbourne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:10. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
11.05.25	South Melbourne - Oakleigh Cannons	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Avondale - South Melbourne	4:0 ✺
25.04.25	Green Gully - South Melbourne	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	0:3 ✺
05.04.25	Altona Magic - South Melbourne	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLLT
- Port Melbourne Sharks
Australian NPL Victoria
09.05.25	Heidelberg United - Port Melbourne Sharks	2:1 ✺
02.05.25	Port Melbourne Sharks - Altona Magic	3:3 ✺
25.04.25	Dandenong City - Port Melbourne Sharks	5:2 ✺
11.04.25	Port Melbourne Sharks - Hume City	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Dandenong Thunder - Port Melbourne Sharks	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
07.02.25	Port Melbourne Sharks - South Melbourne	0:1
26.07.24	South Melbourne - Port Melbourne Sharks	4:0
27.04.24	Port Melbourne Sharks - South Melbourne	2:3
22.07.23	Port Melbourne Sharks - South Melbourne	0:4
24.04.23	South Melbourne - Port Melbourne Sharks	5:2
30.07.22	Port Melbourne Sharks - South Melbourne	2:1
30.04.22	South Melbourne - Port Melbourne Sharks	3:0

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