Match Info

Date: 8 May 2021, Saturday


	Southend United		Newport County

	1	X	2
	4.75	3	1.95
	3.8	3	2.1
	4.75	3.35	1.83
	4.3	3	1.94
	4.76	3.09	2
	4.4	3	1.91
	4.5	3.25	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.47 ↑ (4.35)	3.1 ↓ (3.29)	1.96 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southend United
21.2%

Draw
30.6%

Newport County
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

28.7%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

18.5%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southend United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southend United than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Southend United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newport County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Southend United - Newport County Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Southend is Relegated to

Southend has the most likely position - 23 (78.7%), has project points - 45, has currently - 44, was already of relegated.

Newport has the most likely position - 5 (55.3%), has project points - 74, has currently - 72, has not chance of relegated, has a very good chance of prom. playoffs (97%), has a chance of promoted (25%), has not chance of win league.

Recent matches Southend is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Newport is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Southend could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Newport have a series of home games.

In this match Newport is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Southend won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Southend won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southend United
English League Two
01.05.21	Barrow - Southend United	1:2 ✺
24.04.21	Southend United - Leyton Orient	2:1 ✺
20.04.21	Colchester United - Southend United	2:0 ✺
17.04.21	Exeter City - Southend United	0:0 ✺
10.04.21	Southend United - Crawley Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WWLTT
- Newport County
English League Two
01.05.21	Newport County - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
27.04.21	Newport County - Scunthorpe United	4:0 ✺
24.04.21	Exeter City - Newport County	0:0 ✺
20.04.21	Newport County - Crawley Town	2:0 ✺
17.04.21	Newport County - Cambridge United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
09.02.21	Newport County - Southend United	0:1
English League Cup
08.08.17	Southend United - Newport County	0:2
English League Two
14.04.15	Southend United - Newport County	2:0
21.10.14	Newport County - Southend United	1:0
31.01.14	Southend United - Newport County	0:0
26.10.13	Newport County - Southend United	3:1

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