Match Info

Date: 30 August 2022, Tuesday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)


	Exeter City		Newport County

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	2.9
	2.28	3.1	2.95
	2.21	3.2	3
	2.19	3.42	3.23
	2.16	3.3	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.93)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	3.03 ↓ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
41.5%

Draw
28.2%

Newport County
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

28.5%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

28.4%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Exeter City's form might have worsened.

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newport County's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Exeter City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newport County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	23.5%	52.9%

Exeter City - Newport County Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Newport will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Exeter won 2.

Exeter is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Newport is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Exeter will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Exeter won 6 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 22-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
27.08.22	Accrington Stanley - Exeter City	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
23.08.22	Gillingham - Exeter City	1:0 penalties ✺
English League One
20.08.22	Exeter City - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
16.08.22	Exeter City - Wycombe Wanderers	3:1 ✺
13.08.22	Cambridge United - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TLLWL
- Newport County
English League Two
27.08.22	Harrogate Town - Newport County	0:4 ✺
English League Cup
23.08.22	Newport County - Portsmouth	3:2 ✺
English League Two
20.08.22	Newport County - Tranmere Rovers	2:1 ✺
16.08.22	Newport County - Salford City	2:3 ✺
13.08.22	Bradford City - Newport County	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
02.04.22	Newport County - Exeter City	0:1
16.10.21	Exeter City - Newport County	2:2
24.04.21	Exeter City - Newport County	0:0
16.02.21	Newport County - Exeter City	1:1
26.12.19	Exeter City - Newport County	1:0
English EFL Trophy
08.10.19	Newport County - Exeter City	0:2
English League Two
21.09.19	Newport County - Exeter City	1:1

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