Match Info

League Two - Round 41

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Busby J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Newport County		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.3	2.75
	2.52	3.05	2.88
	2.57	3.4	2.95
	2.4	3.39	2.79	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.75
	2.51	3.31	2.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.7)	3.26 ↓ (3.52)	2.81 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
37.9%

Draw
28.8%

Crawley Town
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

26.4%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

26.5%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crawley Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crawley Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Newport County - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Crawley will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Newport (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Wright J. (G) 18. Shephard L. 4. Baker M. (C) 23. Delaney R. 17. Davies T. 2. Evans C. 5. Sprangler S. 20. Lloyd B. 10. Biggins H. 7. Kamwa B. 16. Crole J.	35. Chapman J. (G) 22. Adeyemo A. 5. Barker C. 2. Malone S. 12. Richards L. 32. Richards T. 26. Williams J. (C) 30. Copley L. 7. Forster H. 13. McKirdy H. 38. Adeyemo T.
Substitutes
9. Baker-Richardson C. 6. Brennan C. 19. Garner G. 13. MacDonald S. (G) 24. Opoku N. 8. Smith M. 12. Thomas J.	6. Anderson M. 31. Odimayo A. 19. Pereira D. 16. Russell J. 27. Watson L. 34. Wollacott J. (G)
Coaches
Fuchs Ch.	Kazim-Richards C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Lloyd B. 🟨,
28', Richards L. 🟨,
37', Evans C. 🟨,
39', McKirdy H. 🟨,
40', Adeyemo T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', Copley L. ↓, Anderson M. ↑,
54', Richards T. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
57', 0 - 1, McKirdy H. ⚽, Adeyemo A. (A),
59', 0 - 2, McKirdy H. ⚽, Forster H. (A),
66', Davies T. ↓, Brennan C. ↑,
66', Crole J. ↓, Baker-Richardson C. ↑,
66', Evans C. ↓, Opoku N. ↑,
72', Adeyemo A. ↓, Odimayo A. ↑,
74', Baker-Richardson C. 🟨,
79', Richards L. ↓, Russell J. ↑,
79', McKirdy H. ↓, Watson L. ↑,
82', Lloyd B. ↓, Garner G. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 22 and 21).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newport won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Crawley: Vassell T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Newport: Jenkins L. (Injury) Spellman M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Crawley: Bajrami G. (Inactive) Loft R. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Newport won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:34. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Newport won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1:1.4).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Newport: 0.45%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Newport	9	2	4	3	12:12	0	10
24	Crawley	7	1	1	5	6:13	-7	4

Last Results with these Odds

Crawley Town - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 39.2%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
28.03.26	Newport County - Shrewsbury Town	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Walsall - Newport County	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Newport County - Bromley	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Barnet - Newport County	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Newport County - Colchester United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WLLWL
- Crawley Town
English League Two
28.03.26	Crawley Town - Gillingham	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Fleetwood Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Crawley Town - Barnet	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Colchester United - Crawley Town	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
09.08.25	Crawley Town - Newport County	1:2
01.04.24	Newport County - Crawley Town	0:4
09.09.23	Crawley Town - Newport County	4:1
02.01.23	Newport County - Crawley Town	2:2
15.10.22	Crawley Town - Newport County	2:1
15.04.22	Newport County - Crawley Town	1:2
23.11.21	Crawley Town - Newport County	1:1

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