Match Info

Serie B - Round 31

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Feliciani E. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia


	Spezia		Brescia

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.53	4	6
	1.61	3.7	5.6	Watch
	1.52	4.08	6.39
	1.68	3.52	5.43	Watch
	1.55	3.9	6
	1.69	3.63	5.3	Watch
	1.61	3.7	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.53)	3.77 ↓ (3.98)	5.7 ↓ (6.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
58.5%

Draw
25%

Brescia
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

23.5%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.9%

22.9%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Brescia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brescia than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	18.2%	18.2%

Spezia - Brescia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Brescia will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Chichizola L. (G) 2. Wisniewski P. 55. Hristov P. 37. Mateju A. 7. Elia S. 80. Kouda R. 8. Nagy A. 25. Bandinelli F. 13. Reca A. 20. Di Serio G. 9. Esposito F.	1. Lezzerini L. (G) 32. Papetti A. 28. Adorni D. 15. Cistana A. 24. Dickmann L. 25. Bisoli D. 6. Verreth M. 19. Corrado N. 20. Nuamah P. 29. Borrelli G. 11. Moncini G.
Substitutes
31. Aurelio G. 44. Benvenuto M. 77. Bertola N. 36. Candelari P. 29. Cassata F. 17. Colak A. 82. Djankpata H. 11. Falcinelli D. 65. Giorgeschi S. 66. Gori S. (G) 10. Lapadula G. 4. Salvador F.	22. Andrenacci L. (G) 12. Avella M. (G) 26. Bertagnoli M. 39. Besaggio M. 9. Bianchi F. 5. Calvani G. 16. D'Andrea L. 18. Jallow A. 7. Juric A. 14. Maucci G. 33. Muca Z.
Coaches
D'Angelo L.	Maran R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Borrelli G. ⚽, Papetti A. (A),
18', Mateju A. 🟨,
20', Bandinelli F. 🟨,
35', Verreth M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mateju A. ↓, Bertola N. ↑,
46', Reca A. ↓, Aurelio G. ↑,
62', Bandinelli F. ↓, Cassata F. ↑,
62', Nuamah P. ↓, Bertagnoli M. ↑,
63', Corrado N. ↓, Jallow A. ↑,
68', Elia S. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
70', Cassata F. 🟨,
71', D'Angelo L. 🟨,
72', Adorni D. 🟨,
73', Cassata F. 🟨,
77', Di Serio G. ↓, Falcinelli D. ↑,
83', Moncini G. ↓, Juric A. ↑,
84', Verreth M. ↓, Besaggio M. ↑,
84', Cistana A. ↓, Calvani G. ↑,
90+1', Besaggio M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 1.

Recent matches Spezia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Brescia is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Spezia is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Spezia: Degli Innocenti D. (Injury) Sarr M. (Shoulder Injury) Soleri E. (Injury) Vignali L. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Brescia: Cistana A. (Injury) Galazzi N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Brescia: Bertagnoli M. (Inactive)

Last 19 head-to-head matches Spezia won 9 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 31:17 (average 1.6:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 20:9 (average 2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
15.03.25	Cesena - Spezia	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Spezia - Pisa	3:2 ✺
28.02.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Spezia - Catanzaro	0:1 ✺
15.02.25	Modena - Spezia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TWTLT
- Brescia Calcio
Italian Serie B
15.03.25	Frosinone - Brescia	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Brescia - Cesena	1:1 ✺
02.03.25	Palermo - Brescia	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Brescia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Sassuolo - Brescia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
29.10.24	Brescia - Spezia	1:1
27.04.24	Brescia - Spezia	0:0
26.09.23	Spezia - Brescia	0:0
Coppa Italia
19.10.22	Spezia - Brescia	3:1
Italian Serie B
27.01.19	Brescia - Spezia	4:4
01.09.18	Spezia - Brescia	3:2
17.04.18	Spezia - Brescia	0:1

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