Match Info

ITALY: Serie B - Round 29

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia


	Spezia		Pisa

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.3	4.75	Watch
	2	3.1	3.9
	1.86	3.2	4.5	Watch
	1.86	3.3	5.44
	1.85	3.22	5.01	Watch
	1.91	3.25	4.2
	1.88	3.34	4.55	Watch
	1.86	3.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.84)	3.24 ↓ (3.41)	4.61 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
50.3%

Draw
29.2%

Pisa
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

27.1%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

25.7%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Pisa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pisa than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Spezia - Pisa Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Chichizola L. (G) 2. Wisniewski P. 55. Hristov P. 77. Bertola N. 37. Mateju A. 32. Vignali L. 5. Esposito Sa. 25. Bandinelli F. 13. Reca A. 9. Esposito F. 10. Lapadula G.	47. Semper A. (G) 5. Canestrelli S. 4. Caracciolo Ant. (C) 94. Bonfanti G. 15. Toure I. 28. Abildgaard O. 6. Marin M. 66. Sernicola L. 14. Meister H. 11. Tramoni M. 45. Lind A.
Substitutes
31. Aurelio G. 44. Benvenuto M. 36. Candelari P. 17. Colak A. 20. Di Serio G. 7. Elia S. 11. Falcinelli D. 4. Ferrer S. 65. Giorgeschi S. 66. Gori S. (G) 80. Kouda R. 8. Nagy A.	3. Angori S. 30. Arena A. 16. Buffon L. 33. Calabresi A. 27. Castellini A. 8. Hojholt M. 22. Loria L. (G) 80. Morutan O. 1. Nicolas Andrade (G) 36. Piccinini G. 17. Rus A. 21. Solbakken M.
Coaches
D'Angelo L.	Inzaghi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Wisniewski P. (Own goal),
43', Meister H. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Esposito Sa. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 1 - 2, Meister H. ⚽, Toure I. (A),
57', Bertola N. ↓, Elia S. ↑,
58', 2 - 2, Esposito F. ⚽, Reca A. (A),
65', 3 - 2, Wisniewski P. ⚽,
69', Bonfanti G. ↓, Angori S. ↑,
69', Toure I. ↓, Morutan O. ↑,
73', Mateju A. 🟨,
74', Canestrelli S. 🟨,
77', Meister H. ↓, Arena A. ↑,
78', Esposito Sa. ↓, Nagy A. ↑,
78', Lapadula G. ↓, Di Serio G. ↑,
84', Caracciolo Ant. ↓, Piccinini G. ↑,
84', Marin M. ↓, Buffon L. ↑,
86', Abildgaard O. 🟨,
88', Reca A. 🟨,
88', Reca A. ↓, Aurelio G. ↑,
88', Vignali L. ↓, Kouda R. ↑,
90+4', Lind A. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Pisa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Spezia is a favorite.

There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F. (Yellow Cards) Sarr M. (Shoulder Injury) Soleri E. (Injury)

There will not play in Pisa: Esteves T. (Tendon Injury) Leris M. (Injury) Solbakken M. (Muscle Injury) Vignato E. (Ankle Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Spezia won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:9 (average 1.1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Spezia - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.13%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
28.02.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Spezia - Catanzaro	0:1 ✺
15.02.25	Modena - Spezia	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Spezia - Palermo	2:2 ✺
01.02.25	Cittadella - Spezia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLTTW
- AC Pisa
Italian Serie B
01.03.25	Sassuolo - Pisa	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Pisa - Juve Stabia	3:1 ✺
16.02.25	Cesena - Pisa	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Pisa - Cittadella	0:1 ✺
31.01.25	Palermo - Pisa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
17.08.24	Pisa - Spezia	2:2
27.01.24	Pisa - Spezia	2:3
08.10.23	Spezia - Pisa	0:0
29.06.20	Spezia - Pisa	1:2
09.11.19	Pisa - Spezia	3:2
13.05.17	Spezia - Pisa	0:0
24.12.16	Pisa - Spezia	0:0

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