Match Info

Serie B - Round 30

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Turrini N. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Slovakia	Sport TV2
Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Modena		Spezia

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.75	5.25	Watch
	1.68	3.5	4.95
	1.69	3.8	5.62
	1.68	3.6	5.29	Watch
	1.65	3.5	5
	1.67	3.79	5.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.74)	3.66 ↑ (3.45)	5.24 ↑ (4.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
56.4%

Draw
25.7%

Spezia
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

26.8%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

26.2%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Modena - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Spezia will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Spezia (4.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Spezia (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Spezia (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 28. Adorni D. 20. Nieling B. 7. Zampano F. 71. Wiafe S. 16. Gerli F. (C) 8. Santoro S. 98. Zanimacchia L. 99. De Luca M. 9. Gliozzi E.	22. Radunovic B. (G) 32. Vignali L. (C) 94. Bonfanti G. 11. Beruatto P. 17. Sernicola L. 6. Bellemo A. 60. Romano A. 34. Comotto C. 31. Aurelio G. 5. Valoti M. 9. Artistico G.
Substitutes
10. Ambrosino G. 2. Beyuku G. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 25. Dellavalle A. 90. Imputato A. 13. Laidani A. (G) 17. Massolin Y. 11. Mendes P. 19. Nador S. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 5. Sersanti A.	70. Adamo E. 25. Bandinelli F. 24. Bertoncini A. 18. Conte G. 55. Hristov P. 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 8. Nagy A. 4. Ruggero M. 19. Shagaxle H.
Coaches
Sottil A.	Donadoni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, De Luca M. ⚽, Wiafe S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', Bellemo A. 🟨,
53', Beruatto P. 🟨,
55', 2 - 0, De Luca M. ⚽, Santoro S. (A),
57', Bellemo A. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
59', 3 - 0, Gliozzi E. ⚽, De Luca M. (A),
62', Comotto C. ↓, Bandinelli F. ↑,
63', Romano A. ↓, Nagy A. ↑,
71', Wiafe S. ↓, Sersanti A. ↑,
71', Gliozzi E. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
74', Zampano F. ↓, Beyuku G. ↑,
77', Valoti M. ↓, Shagaxle H. ↑,
77', Bonfanti G. ↓, Hristov P. ↑,
87', De Luca M. ↓, Ambrosino G. ↑,
87', Santoro S. ↓, Massolin Y. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Modena is the team to beat.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Modena won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 0.9:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
07.03.26	Modena - Cesena	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Virtus Entella - Modena	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Modena - Padova	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Juve Stabia - Modena	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Modena - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLLWW
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
07.03.26	Spezia - Monza	4:2 ✺
03.03.26	Padova - Spezia	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Spezia - Reggiana	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Cesena - Spezia	2:3 ✺
15.02.26	Spezia - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
13.12.25	Spezia - Modena	0:2
15.02.25	Modena - Spezia	1:1
02.11.24	Spezia - Modena	1:0
25.02.24	Modena - Spezia	0:0
26.12.23	Spezia - Modena	1:1
Coppa Italia
06.08.16	Spezia - Modena	1:0
Italian Serie B
12.03.16	Spezia - Modena	2:0

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