Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 1

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)


	Sport Recife		Jacuipense

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	5
	1.47	4.1	5.75
	1.55	3.75	4.95
	1.61	3.85	5.61
	1.61	3.68	5.43	Watch
	1.57	3.5	5
	1.55	3.6	5.59	Watch
	1.41	4.1	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.43)	3.77 ↓ (4.05)	5.52 ↓ (6.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
59.2%

Draw
24.2%

Jacuipense
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63%

22.3%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65%

21.6%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Jacuipense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sport Recife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacuipense than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Sport Recife - Jacuipense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thiago Couto (G) 68. Augusto 6. Biel Fonseca 25. Clayson 10. de Pena Carlos 60. Felipinho 3. Marcelo Ajul 7. Yago Felipe (C) 23. Ze Gabriel 4. Ze Marcos 99. Ze Roberto	1. Marcelo (C) 22. Hugo Moura 19. Pedro Henrique 3. Railon 5. Talisca 14. Thiago 21. Thiaguinho 18. Vicente 8. Vinicius Amaral 4. Weverton 7. William
Substitutes
54. Adriel 65. Dede 67. Felipinho 11. Gustavo Maia 1. Halls (G) 71. Lipao 31. Marlon Douglas 8. Max Alves 77. Micael 63. Patrick 66. Rafinha 40. Ramon Menezes	9. Adriano 10. Alison Daniel 13. Daniel Costa 15. David Santana 11. Flavinho 23. Italo (G) 20. Joao Pedro 6. Ruan 2. Vicente

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Vinicius Amaral 🟨,
24', Marcelo Ajul 🟨,
26', Hugo Moura 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Augusto ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
58', 1 - 0, de Pena Carlos ⚽,
60', Ze Roberto ↓, Lipao ↑,
62', William ↓, Adriano ↑,
64', de Pena Carlos 🟨,
64', 🟨,
66', de Pena Carlos ↓, Max Alves ↑,
66', Clayson ↓, Gustavo Maia ↑,
73', Pedro Henrique ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
73', Vinicius Amaral ↓, Alison Daniel ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Adriano ⚽,
84', 🟨,
85', Vicente ↓, Ruan ↑,
85', Thiaguinho ↓, Daniel Costa ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Biel Fonseca ⚽,
89', Biel Fonseca ↓, Ramon Menezes ↑,
90+5', 🟨,
90+5', Thiago 🟨,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

Recife may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Recife is the obvious favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Sport Recife - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 63.04%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Cuiabá - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
12.03.26	Sport Recife - Anápolis	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.03.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Sport Recife	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLWWW
- EC Jacuipense
Copa do Brasil
18.03.26	Jacuipense - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 penalties ✺
11.03.26	Santa Catarina - Jacuipense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Jacuipense	2:1 penalties ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Ceilândia - Jacuipense	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
22.02.26	Jacuipense - Bahia de Feira	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWLWW

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