Match Info

Serie B - Round 29

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Vollkopf P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!, SportyNet


	Sport Recife		Juventude

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.45	3.00	2.80
	2.52	2.95	2.8	Watch
	2.68	3.15	2.92
	2.57	3.11	2.83	Watch
	2.6	3.05	2.8
	2.55	2.99	2.78	Watch
	2.55	3.05	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.55)	3.05 (3.05)	2.81 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
36.3%

Draw
30.6%

Juventude
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

30.4%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

31.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

The chances for Juventude have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Sport Recife - Juventude Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thiago Couto (G) 68. Augusto 5. Benevenuto (C) 3. Marcelo Ajul 76. Rai 88. Fernando Sobral 29. Willian Oliveira 30. Chrystian Barletta 20. Diego Hernandez 80. Andrade K. 9. Pedro Perotti	93. Jandrei (G) 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 3. Titi 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 13. Aderlan 44. Mandaca 8. Lucas Mineiro 16. Diogo Barbosa 11. Fabio Lima 25. Alisson Safira 29. Gabriel Pires
Substitutes
6. Biel Fonseca 21. Brenno (G) 25. Clayson 10. de Pena Carlos 96. Edson Lucas 28. Habraao 33. Kayky Almeida 31. Marlon Douglas 15. Murilo Rhikman 19. Neto Pessoa 7. Patrick de Paula 23. Ze Gabriel	9. Alan Kardec 70. Juan Christian 5. Luan Martins 72. Lucas Alves 47. Marcos Paulo 4. Messias 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Rai Ramos 75. Rai Silva 27. Ray Breno 21. Ruan Carneiro (G) 6. Wadson
Coaches
Soso M.	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', Fabio Lima 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Mandaca (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 1 - 1, Chrystian Barletta ⚽, Willian Oliveira (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Andrade K. ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
47', Alisson Safira 🟨,
53', Lucas Mineiro 🟨,
55', Rai 🟨,
60', Alisson Safira ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
60', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Luan Martins ↑,
62', Rai ↓, Edson Lucas ↑,
70', Mandaca ↓, Lucas Alves ↑,
72', Pedro Perotti ↓, Neto Pessoa ↑,
72', Fernando Sobral ↓, Patrick de Paula ↑,
79', Rodrigo Sam 🟨,
80', Gabriel Pires ↓, Rai Silva ↑,
81', Aderlan ↓, Wadson ↑,
81', Augusto 🟨,
86', 2 - 1, Marcelo Ajul ⚽, Augusto (A),
90', Diego Hernandez ↓, Biel Fonseca ↑,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 9th and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ PlayoffsFinal)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Recife: Claudinho (Injury) Fabio Matheus (Ankle Injury) Felipinho (Knee Injury) Juan Alano (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Juventude: Allanzinho (Knee Injury) Messias (Muscle Injury).

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Recife has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:8 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Recife against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:3 goals (averaging 2:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Juventude	32	17	8	7	37:19	18	59
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50

Last Results with these Odds

Juventude - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.16%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
15.09.26	CRB Maceio - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
10.09.26	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Ceará - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLLW
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.26	Juventude - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Criciúma - Juventude	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Juventude - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Londrina - Juventude	0:0 ✺
25.08.26	Juventude - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Juventude - Sport Recife	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Sport Recife - Juventude	0:2
14.07.25	Juventude - Sport Recife	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
16.10.23	Juventude - Sport Recife	2:2
22.06.23	Sport Recife - Juventude	3:0
Brazilian Serie A
06.10.21	Sport Recife - Juventude	3:1
20.06.21	Juventude - Sport Recife	1:0

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