Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 20

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sport Recife		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.35	3	3.4	Watch
	2.65	2.95	2.9
	2.32	2.98	3.25
	2.41	3.07	3.49
	1.36	4.61	8.91	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.6
	2.41	3.08	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (3.38)	3.23 ↑ (3.11)	3.98 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
43.2%

Draw
31.4%

São Paulo
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

30.3%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

30.1%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Recife's performance.

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Recife that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+16.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Sport Recife - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Recife: 6.6% – 60%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Recife (1.64) (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - São Paulo (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sport Recife will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 12 - 80%). São Paulo (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 16. Igor Carius 14. Rivera C. 58. Ze Lucas 10. Lucas Lima 17. Matheusinho 38. Leo Pereira 18. Derik Lacerda	50. Young (G) 42. Maik 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 36. Patryck 33. Luan Silva 29. Pablo Maia 15. Rodriguinho 11. Ferreira 19. Dinenno J. 14. Tapia G.
Substitutes
13. Aderlan 20. Atencio R. 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 19. Hyoran 3. Kevyson 92. Pablo 28. Pedro Augusto 9. Ramirez I. 46. Riquelme 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.	17. Andre Silva 21. Bobadilla D. 56. Bosshardt N. 13. Diaz E. 43. Felipe Negrucci 32. Ferraresi N. 37. Henrique Carmo 34. Igor O. G. 12. Leandro Mathias (G) 7. Lucas Moura 46. Pedro Ferreira 6. Soares C.
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Lucas Lima ⚽,
44', Rivera C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Igor Carius ↓, Kevyson ↑,
46', Rodriguinho ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Derik Lacerda ⚽, Matheus Alexandre (A),
51', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
57', Dinenno J. ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
57', Franco A. ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
57', Ferreira ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
60', Maik 🟨,
67', 2 - 1, Lucas Moura ⚽, Henrique Carmo (A),
68', Luan Silva ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
73', Matheusinho ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
74', Derik Lacerda ↓, Pablo ↑,
81', Kevyson 🟨,
82', Leo Pereira ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
90+1', Lucas Lima ↓, Silva J. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Maik ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1.

Recife has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Hereda (Health problems) Oliveira S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.25	Grêmio - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Sport Recife - Bahia	0:0 ✺
26.07.25	Sport Recife - Santos	2:2 ✺
23.07.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	2:2 ✺
20.07.25	Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WTTTL
- São Paulo FC
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	São Paulo - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo	2:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Internacional RS - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.25	São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	São Paulo - Sport Recife	0:0
Copa do Brasil
01.06.23	São Paulo - Sport Recife	2:3 penalties
17.05.23	Sport Recife - São Paulo	0:2
Brazilian Serie A
27.11.21	São Paulo - Sport Recife	2:0
22.08.21	Sport Recife - São Paulo	0:1
06.12.20	São Paulo - Sport Recife	1:0
23.08.20	Sport Recife - São Paulo	0:1

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