Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 18

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sport Recife		Bahia

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.35
	3.05	3.05	2.35
	3.32	3.26	2.38
	3.85	3.27	2.01	Watch
	3	3.1	2.45
	3.17	3.14	2.45	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.94)	3.15 ↑ (3.11)	2.35 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
29.6%

Draw
30.1%

Bahia
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

30.4%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	12.5%	70.8%

Sport Recife - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). Bahia will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Bahia (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Recife (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Recife (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bahia will win (16 of 16 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Bahia (votes: 17 - 89.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 16. Igor Carius 14. Rivera C. 58. Ze Lucas 17. Matheusinho 20. Atencio R. 30. Chrystian Barletta 18. Derik Lacerda	96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 7. Ademir 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 25. Iago Borduchi 12. Willian Jose
Substitutes
22. Caique Franca (G) 52. Caua Berrio 44. Chico 54. Gomes do Nascimento A. 19. Hyoran 3. Kevyson 38. Leo Pereira 92. Pablo 28. Pedro Augusto 9. Ramirez I. 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.	13. Arias S. 8. Cauly 3. Gabriel Xavier 37. Kayky 22. Marcos Felipe (G) 15. Michel Araujo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 17. Rodriguez L. 77. Tiago 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Atencio R. ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
57', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
73', Iago Borduchi ↓, Kayky ↑,
73', Willian Jose ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
76', Ramos S. 🟨,
79', Ze Lucas ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
79', Igor Carius ↓, Kevyson ↑,
80', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Cauly ↑,
80', Ademir ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
85', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
86', Matheusinho ↓, Hyoran ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3.

Recife has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Bahia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Lucas Lima (Yellow Cards) Oliveira S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Fred Lippert (Inactive) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Tiago (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Derik Lacerda (Ankle Injury) Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Rezende (Back Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Recife won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 30:20. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:2. (average 2:0.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Sport Recife - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 32.09%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.25	Sport Recife - Santos	2:2 ✺
23.07.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	2:2 ✺
20.07.25	Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
14.07.25	Juventude - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Sport Recife - Ceará	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTLLL
- EC Bahia
Copa do Brasil
30.07.25	Bahia - Retrô Brasil	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.07.25	Bahia - Juventude	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.07.25	América de Cali - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.07.25	Fortaleza - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.07.25	Bahia - América de Cali	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.02.24	Bahia - Sport Recife	2:1
22.02.23	Sport Recife - Bahia	6:0
Brazilian Serie B
12.09.22	Sport Recife - Bahia	1:0
08.06.22	Bahia - Sport Recife	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.22	Bahia - Sport Recife	2:3
Brazilian Serie A
18.11.21	Sport Recife - Bahia	1:0
01.08.21	Bahia - Sport Recife	0:1

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