Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Atlético Nacional		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.75	Watch
	2.2	3	3.5
	2.12	2.98	3.7	Watch
	2.21	3.08	3.98
	2.2	2.9	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.08	3.81	Watch
	2.12	3.1	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.13)	3.03 ↓ (3.18)	3.66 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
43.3%

Draw
31%

São Paulo
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

29.9%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

31.5%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Atlético Nacional - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 9 - 75%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Nacional: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Nacional will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 23. Arias J. J. 16. Tesillo W. 13. Candido C. 21. Campuzano J. 80. Zapata J. 18. Hinestroza M. 10. Cardona E. 7. Moreno M. 9. Morelos A.	23. Rafael (C) 32. Ferraresi N. 35. Sabino 28. Franco A. 6. Soares C. 25. Alisson 21. Bobadilla D. 20. Marcos Antonio 13. Diaz E. 10. Luciano 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
11. Arce B. 30. Bauza J. 15. Castillo H. (G) 20. Castro J. 28. Garcia S. 4. Haydar C. 37. Landazuri L. 38. Rengifo J. 26. Rivero E. 17. Salazar A. 8. Uribe M.	19. Dinenno J. 43. Felipe Negrucci 11. Ferreira 37. Henrique Carmo 33. Luan Silva 7. Lucas Moura 42. Maik 29. Pablo Maia 36. Patryck 15. Rodriguinho 14. Tapia G. 50. Young (G)
Coaches
Gandolfi J.	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Cardona E. (Pen),
35', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
42', Alisson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Alisson ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
62', Andre Silva ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
68', Cardona E. (Pen),
71', Roman A. 🟨,
74', Moreno M. ↓, Bauza J. ↑,
79', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
79', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
86', Cardona E. ↓, Arce B. ↑,
86', Zapata J. ↓, Uribe M. ↑,
90+1', Marcos Antonio ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
90+5', Morelos A. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 4.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atlético Nacional could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Nacional - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.62%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
08.08.25	Atlético Nacional - Alianza Valledupar	3:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
05.08.25	Cúcuta Deportivo - Atlético Nacional	0:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
02.08.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
29.07.25	Atlético Nacional - Cúcuta Deportivo	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
25.07.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTWT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	São Paulo - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo	2:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Internacional RS - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.25	São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.07.25	São Paulo - Fluminense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
13.07.16	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	2:1
06.07.16	São Paulo - Atlético Nacional	0:2
Copa Sudamericana
26.11.14	São Paulo - Atlético Nacional	1:1 penalties
19.11.14	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	1:0
06.11.13	Atlético Nacional - São Paulo	0:0
30.10.13	São Paulo - Atlético Nacional	3:2

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