Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN 5
Ecuador	ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN, Inter


	Sporting Cristal		Carabobo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.75	Watch
	1.92	3.05	4.15
	2	3.18	4.37
	1.89	3.28	4.55	Watch
	2	2.9	4	Watch
	2	3.46	4.14	Watch
	1.63	3.9	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.63)	3.3 ↓ (3.9)	4.31 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Sporting Cristal
49.4%

Draw
28.7%

Carabobo
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.1%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

25.2%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Cristal's form might have worsened.

Carabobo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Cristal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Sporting Cristal - Carabobo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Carabobo will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Carabobo (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Enriquez D. (G) 8. Sosa L. 20. Araujo M. 5. Lutiger R. 90. Cristiano 21. Cabellos C. 25. Tavara M. 19. Yotun Y. (C) 27. Gabriel 9. Vizeu F. 16. Iberico L.	22. Bruera L. (C) 28. Bilbao J. 32. Neira E. 3. Fuentes J. 14. Berios J. 5. Castillo E. 26. Nunez M. 15. Cova M. 8. Perez J. 9. Riasco J. 7. Tortolero E.
Substitutes
11. Avila I. 33. Bautista C. (G) 14. Benavente C. 23. Castro M. 55. Cazonatti G. 32. Diaz L. 10. Gonzales C. 18. Gonzalez J. 7. Gonzalez S. 28. Otoya D. 15. Posito Olazabal A. J. 26. Wisdom I.	4. Aponte L. 6. Bahachille A. 13. Duran J. 2. Guaramato M. 16. Lopez F. 19. Martinez L. 30. Mendoza S. 23. Meza D. 55. Moreno Ciorciari J. J. 17. Oliveros F. 10. Orozco Y. 12. Roa K. (G)
Coaches
Autuori P.	Farias D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Castillo E. ⚽, Berios J. (A),
29', 0 - 2, Castillo E. ⚽, Riasco J. (A),
32', Tortolero E. 🟨,
34', Iberico L. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
35', Cabellos C. ↓, Castro M. ↑,
39', Tavara M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tortolero E. ↓, Orozco Y. ↑,
46', Vizeu F. ↓, Avila I. ↑,
50', 1 - 2, Castro M. ⚽, Sosa L. (A),
56', Riasco J. ↓, Guaramato M. ↑,
71', Berios J. 🟨,
72', Berios J. ↓, Moreno Ciorciari J. J. ↑,
78', Tavara M. ↓, Cazonatti G. ↑,
78', Bilbao J. ↓, Aponte L. ↑,
78', Castillo E. ↓, Bahachille A. ↑,
90', Yotun Y. 🟨,
90', Gabriel ↓, Gonzales C. ↑,
90+1', Fuentes J. 🟨,
90+5', Sosa L. 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 2)
1, Cova M. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Yotun Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Orozco Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Avila I. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Aponte L. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Gonzalez S. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Nunez M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Gonzales C. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Oliveros F. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Cristiano (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.

Sporting Cristal is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Carabobo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Sporting Cristal is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sporting Cristal won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.26	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Atlético	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.03.26	Carabobo - Sporting Cristal	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
28.02.26	Sport Huancayo - Sporting Cristal	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.02.26	Sporting Cristal - 2 de Mayo	1:0 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
21.02.26	Sporting Cristal - Universitario de Deportes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWT
- Carabobo FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
07.03.26	Zamora - Carabobo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.03.26	Carabobo - Sporting Cristal	0:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
28.02.26	Carabobo - Caracas	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.02.26	Huachipato - Carabobo	1:2 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
20.02.26	Metropolitanos - Carabobo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
04.03.26	Carabobo - Sporting Cristal	0:1

Upcoming Matches