Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Hodges Stadium (Jacksonville, FL)

Referee: Rodriguez C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sporting Jacksonville		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.60	3.75	1.75
	3.90	3.65	1.70
	3.89	4.34	1.81
	3.61	4.24	1.8	Watch
	3.60	4.25	1.79
	4.09	3.94	1.75	Watch
	3.60	3.80	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↑ (3.64)	4 ↑ (3.79)	1.77 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Jacksonville
24.6%

Draw
23.1%

Lexington
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

24.5%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

23.2%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Jacksonville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Jacksonville than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Sporting Jacksonville - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McGuire J. (G) 18. Ackwei W. 15. Edwards R. (C) 21. Godinho M. 12. Rito E. 6. Rossiter J. 14. Jean Mota 19. Pedder R. 8. Kuzain W. 16. Jaaskelainen E. 10. Sadlier K.	17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 5. Burks K. 23. Brown J. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 15. Okello N. 34. Fry M. 8. Nick Firmino (C) 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.
Substitutes
11. Al Qaq A. 42. Casas E. (G) 22. Gomez A. 9. Luckhurst A. 2. Neville H. 24. Roberts T. 28. Underwood E. 27. Wilson D.	40. Addams G. (G) 14. Caborn A. 21. Muir M. 19. Scott T. 98. Seagrist P. 24. Stockton B. 20. Yosef M.
Coaches
Fox L.	Hemmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Sadlier K. ⚽, Jean Mota (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
60', Rossiter J. 🟨,
69', Nick Firmino ↓, Yosef M. ↑,
69', Fry M. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
72', Sadlier K. ↓, Neville H. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Epps M. ⚽, Ferri B. (A),
80', Pedder R. ↓, Al Qaq A. ↑,
81', Godinho M. ↓, Roberts T. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Zengue X. ⚽, Greene J. (A),
86', Kuzain W. ↓, Luckhurst A. ↑,
86', Ackwei W. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Jaaskelainen E. ⚽,
90+4', Greene J. ↓, Seagrist P. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 2, Al Qaq A. ⚽, Luckhurst A. (A),
90+4', Al Qaq A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Sporting Jax has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lexington has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sporting Jax may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sporting Jax has had a series of away games.

Lexington could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Jacksonville
USL Championship
29.08.26	Brooklyn - Sporting Jacksonville	4:1 ✺
22.08.26	Birmingham Legion - Sporting Jacksonville	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Indy Eleven	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Sacramento Republic - Sporting Jacksonville	5:0 ✺
25.07.26	El Paso Locomotive - Sporting Jacksonville	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWLLL
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
29.08.26	Lexington - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	0:1 ✺
26.08.26	New Mexico United - Lexington	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Lexington - Las Vegas Lights	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Sacramento Republic - Lexington	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Lexington - Phoenix Rising	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWLW

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