Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Referee: Ndiaye A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lexington		Phoenix Rising

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.77	3.60	3.60
	1.81	3.60	3.50
	1.89	3.75	4.17
	1.81	3.88	3.87	Watch
	1.80	3.85	3.95
	1.83	3.65	4.05	Watch
	1.80	3.60	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.88)	3.7 ↓ (3.86)	3.84 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lexington
50.9%

Draw
25%

Phoenix Rising
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

24%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

23.6%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lexington - Phoenix Rising Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Lexington will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 5. Burks K. 23. Brown J. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 8. Nick Firmino 27. Rodrigues B. P. 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.	1. Rakovsky P. (G) 2. Smith C. 4. Mar Boye P. (C) 17. JP Scearce 87. Flores D. 13. Moursou J. 8. Gomez D. 7. Sacko I. 23. Badji D. 10. Avayevu H. 27. Ambursley C.
Substitutes
40. Addams G. (G) 14. Caborn A. 22. Hafferty J. 18. Henry-Scott M. 21. Muir M. 4. Ordonez A. 19. Scott T. 31. Thompson B. (G) 13. Tschantret M.	20. Biasi L. 5. Czichos R. 12. Dennis C. 68. Irwin J. 14. Odunze C. (G) 24. Pelayo A. 37. Rivera G. 11. Studenhofft G.
Coaches
Hemmi M.	Kah P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', JP Scearce 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Nick Firmino ↓, Scott T. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Rodrigues B. P. ⚽, Ferri B. (A),
68', Smith C. ↓, Biasi L. ↑,
68', Ambursley C. ↓, Pelayo A. ↑,
74', Ferri B. ↓, Tschantret M. ↑,
77', Greene J. ↓, Hafferty J. ↑,
80', Moursou J. ↓, Studenhofft G. ↑,
85', Biasi L. 🟥,
86', Avayevu H. ↓, Dennis C. ↑,
86', Mar Boye P. ↓, Czichos R. ↑,
90+5', Molloy A. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Lexington is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lexington won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Lexington won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Championship
01.08.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Tulsa - Lexington	0:0 ✺
22.07.26	Lexington - Oakland Roots	2:0 ✺
15.07.26	Lexington - New Mexico United	1:4 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Louisville City - Lexington	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTWLL
- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
01.08.26	Las Vegas Lights - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	Phoenix Rising - Hartford Athletic	0:0 ✺
18.07.26	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	3:2 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	AV Alta - Phoenix Rising	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Phoenix Rising	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
09.08.25	Lexington - Phoenix Rising	2:0
04.07.25	Phoenix Rising - Lexington	0:1

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