Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)

Referee: Flores G. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sacramento Republic		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.25	3.50
	1.95	3.2	3.6
	2.01	3.44	3.95
	1.95	3.61	3.58	Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.9
	2.14	3.4	3.24	Watch
	1.96	3.25	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.09)	3.35 ↑ (3.28)	3.62 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Republic
46.7%

Draw
27.6%

Lexington
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

28%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

28.9%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Lexington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Sacramento Republic - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitiello D. (G) 2. Gurr J. 5. Timmer J. 4. Desmond L. (C) 21. Leibold T. 27. Crisostomo D. 24. Casas J. 20. Willey B. 8. Rodriguez M. 7. Malango M. 16. Wolff T.	17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 5. Burks K. 23. Brown J. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 8. Nick Firmino 27. Rodrigues B. P. 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.
Substitutes
11. Ajago F. 71. Edwards K. 15. Essel A. 6. Kleemann F. 19. Midence A. 31. Randolph J. (G) 10. Rodriguez A. 3. Spaulding R. 55. Ukaegbu C.	22. Hafferty J. 18. Henry-Scott M. 21. Muir M. 4. Ordonez A. 19. Scott T. 31. Thompson B. (G) 13. Tschantret M.
Coaches
Collins N.	Hemmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Willey B. 🟨,
39', Crisostomo D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
68', Rodrigues B. P. ↓, Tschantret M. ↑,
76', Willey B. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
76', Wolff T. ↓, Edwards K. ↑,
76', Tschantret M. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
81', Greene J. ↓, Hafferty J. ↑,
83', Goodrum P. 🟨,
84', Leibold T. ↓, Spaulding R. ↑,
84', Malango M. ↓, Midence A. ↑,
87', 1 - 0, Edwards K. ⚽, Timmer J. (A),
88', Casas J. 🟨,
90', Casas J. ↓, Essel A. ↑,
90+2', Scott T. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Sacramento Republic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lexington is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lexington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sacramento Republic has had a series of away games.

Recently, Lexington has had a series of home games.

Sacramento Republic will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Sacramento Republic won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Lexington - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 27.9%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
08.08.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Sacramento Republic	0:0 ✺
05.08.26	Tulsa - Sacramento Republic	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Sacramento Republic - Sporting Jacksonville	5:0 ✺
25.07.26	Oakland Roots - Sacramento Republic	1:3 ✺
18.07.26	Charleston Battery - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLWWT
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
08.08.26	Lexington - Phoenix Rising	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Tulsa - Lexington	0:0 ✺
22.07.26	Lexington - Oakland Roots	2:0 ✺
15.07.26	Lexington - New Mexico United	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
14.03.26	Lexington - Sacramento Republic	0:0
17.10.25	Lexington - Sacramento Republic	2:2
19.07.25	Sacramento Republic - Lexington	0:0

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