Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 3

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Lithuania	Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 5, Arena Sport 6
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Nacional		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	11	6.25	1.22	Watch
	9.5	5.75	1.27
	11.5	6.4	1.21	Watch
	12.65	6.7	1.24
	5.91	4.06	1.54	Watch
	9.5	5.5	1.29	Watch
	12.1	6.9	1.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.31 ↑ (9.16)	5.94 ↓ (5.97)	1.29 ↑ (1.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
9.3%

Draw
16.2%

Sporting Lisbon
74.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.3%

15.7%

74%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	21.4%	71.4%

Nacional - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Sporting will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Sporting (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 28. Liziero 6. Matheus Dias 15. Labidi C. 11. Paulinho Boia 9. Ramirez J. 99. Pablo Ruan	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 6. Debast Z. 25. Inacio G. 91. Mangas R. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 5. Morita H. 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 8. Goncalves P. 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 26. Silva J. 22. Soares F. 18. Sousa A. 24. Vallier L. 30. Watts 7. Witi	27. Alisson Santos 9. Harder C. 14. Kochorashvili G. 72. Quaresma E. 7. Quenda G. 52. Simoes J. 19. Travassos 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Margarido T.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Leo Santos ⚽, Liziero (A),
26', Pablo Ruan 🟨,
30', Goncalves P. 🟨,
32', Morita H. ↓, Kochorashvili G. ↑,
37', Pablo Ruan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Labidi C. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Goncalves P. ⚽, Suarez L. (A),
59', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
60', Mangas R. 🟨,
64', Fresneda I. ↓, Vagiannidis G. ↑,
64', Mangas R. ↓, Quenda G. ↑,
70', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
75', Paulinho Boia ↓, Witi ↑,
75', Liziero ↓, Silva J. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Goncalves P. ⚽, Inacio G. (A),
78', Catamo G. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
83', 1 - 3, Harder C. ⚽, Goncalves P. (A),
90', Matheus Dias ↓, Watts ↑,
90+3', 1 - 4, Goncalves P. ⚽, Suarez L. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0.

Sporting is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sporting has had a series of home games.

In this match, Sporting is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Muscle Injury) Deivison (Inactive) Fernandes I. (Inactive) Ulisses (Red Card)

There will not play in Sporting: Araujo M. (Injury) Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Diomande O. (Injury) Matheus Reis (Suspended) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nacional: Joao L. (Inactive) Nourani M. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 9:39. (average 0.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:19. (average 0.5:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
17.08.25	Rio Ave - Nacional	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Nacional - Gil Vicente	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.25	Marítimo - Nacional	3:0 ✺
22.07.25	Celta de Vigo - Nacional	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
17.05.25	Porto - Nacional	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
17.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	6:0 ✺
08.08.25	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Super Cup
31.07.25	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.25	Sporting Lisbon - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
21.07.25	Sporting Lisbon - Sunderland	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
25.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.24	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	3:1
Liga Portugal
17.08.24	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	1:6
01.05.21	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0
08.01.21	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	0:2
19.04.19	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	0:1
16.12.18	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	5:2

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