Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 28 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Lithuania	Sport 1
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Canal 11, Sport TV2
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Sporting Lisbon		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	1.05	10	21	Watch
	1.05	11	34	Watch
	1.08	10.88	28.63	Watch
	1.08	11	26
	1.09	12.9	27	Watch
	1.09	9	26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.07 ↓ (1.16)	10.8 ↑ (7.14)	27.11 ↑ (17.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
87.8%

Draw
8.7%

Rio Ave
3.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

81.5%

13.2%

5.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Lisbon's performance.

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 18 - 78.3%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 61.5% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Rio Ave (6.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Sporting (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Rio Ave (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 13. Vagiannidis G. 72. Quaresma E. 25. Inacio G. 91. Mangas R. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 52. Simoes J. 17. Trincao 89. Ioannidis F. 20. Araujo M. 97. Suarez L.	1. Miszta C. (C) 23. Petrasso F. 32. Brabec J. 6. Abbey N. 20. Tome J. 5. Ntoi A. 54. Liavas G. 3. Athanasiou N. 18. Spikic D. 14. Zoabi K. 80. Pohlmann O.
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 70. Blopa S. 78. Couto M. 58. Goncalves F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 2. Matheus Reis 5. Morita H. 28. Ribeiro R. 12. Virginia J. (G)	10. Aguilera Zamora B. 11. Andre Luiz 22. Chamorro K. (G) 2. da Silva Moreira E. 21. Graca J. 28. Gual M. 63. Lomboto J. 25. Rafael Lobato 17. Vrousai M.
Coaches
Borges R.	Sylaidopoulos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Suarez L. ⚽, Simoes J. (A),
36', Inacio G. 🟨,
38', Tome J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Zoabi K. ↓, Andre Luiz ↑,
46', Tome J. ↓, Vrousai M. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Araujo M. ⚽, Suarez L. (A),
60', 3 - 0, Suarez L. ⚽, Trincao (A),
61', 4 - 0, Suarez L. ⚽,
62', Spikic D. ↓, Aguilera Zamora B. ↑,
64', Araujo M. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
64', Hjulmand M. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
65', Simoes J. ↓, Kochorashvili G. ↑,
68', Inacio G. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
76', Liavas G. ↓, Graca J. ↑,
76', Petrasso F. ↓, Lomboto J. ↑,
78', Ioannidis F. ↓, Goncalves F. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 4.

Sporting is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Rio Ave has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Rio Ave may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sporting has had a series of away games.

In this match, Sporting is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Catamo G. (International duty) Debast Z. (Knee Injury) Diomande O. (International duty) Fresneda I. (Yellow Cards) Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Quenda G. (Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Knee Injury) Clayton (Yellow Cards) Nikitscher T. (Red Card) Rafael Lobato (Inactive) Richards O. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 43:15. (average 2.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:9. (average 2.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
23.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Bayern Munich - Sporting Lisbon	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.12.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWLT
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	AVS - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
22.04.25	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	1:2
03.04.25	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	2:0
Liga Portugal
18.01.25	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:3
09.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	3:1
25.02.24	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	3:3
25.09.23	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	2:0
06.02.23	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:1

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