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Current Win Probability
Sporting San Miguelito 39.2%
Draw 31.2%
Independiente de la Chorrera 29.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.4%
29%
26.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.1%
28.8%
26.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sporting San Miguelito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting San Miguelito's form might have worsened.
Independiente de la Chorrera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting San Miguelito than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente de la Chorrera than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
Sporting San Miguelito - Independiente de la Chorrera Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
26. Calderon J. (G) 29. Alba O. 31. Cummings H. 27. Tello Valor R. 33. Betancourt J. 11. Cooper A. 13. Azcarate M. 17. Valencia A. 99. Herrera G. 2. Caicedo J. 62. James A.
1. Rodriguez A. (G) 5. Angulo Garces K. J. 3. Davis O. 4. Hormechea C. 21. Modelo J. 13. Arboleda J. 6. Fields L. 10. Aguila R. 7. Caicedo A. 25. Contreras D. 16. Obando J.
Substitutes
28. Barria J. 55. Benitez R. 20. Bethancourt A. 53. Castillo A. 9. de Leon R. 21. Hoyos D. 1. Mosquera K. (G) 25. Munoz J. 10. Orelien A. 83. Richards M.
18. Ambuila L. 26. Berrocal O. 28. Bonilla K. 83. Leon G. (G) 27. Morales A. 19. Petit D. 17. Rivas R. 20. Rivera O. 15. Vasquez Y. 22. Waterman B.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Obando J. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Tello Valor R. ⚽,
37', Fields L. 🟨,
43', Cooper A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fields L. ↓, Bonilla K. ↑,
59', Valencia A. ↓, Orelien A. ↑,
60', James A. ↓, Barria J. ↑,
66', Caicedo A. ↓, Vasquez Y. ↑,
66', Obando J. ↓, Petit D. ↑,
69', Cooper A. ↓, Benitez R. ↑,
83', Herrera G. ↓, Richards M. ↑,
90+6', 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Miguelito won 2.
In recent matches, San Miguelito has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Independiente is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
San Miguelito may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
San Miguelito will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, San Miguelito won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, San Miguelito won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.4:1.3).
Last Results with these Odds
Independiente de la Chorrera - the odds 3.49 are the expected chance of winning is 26.59%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
Panama
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Calderon J. (G) 
Caicedo J. 
Leon G. (G) 
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