Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports


	Sportivo Ameliano		Guaraní Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.6	Watch
	2.68	3	2.62
	2.87	3.06	2.68
	2.68	3.04	2.77	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.63
	2.7	3.08	2.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.56)	3.01 ↓ (3.14)	2.66 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
34.3%

Draw
30.8%

Guaraní Asuncion
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

29.7%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

28.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez M. (G) 21. Franco F. 26. Gonzalez J. 22. Falabella A. 34. Benitez M. 6. Benitez J. 7. Vera F. 40. Contrera A. (C) 20. Larralde V. 38. Portillo F. 10. Vera E.	1. Servio G. (C) 3. Barbotte A. 2. Segovia I. 4. Zaracho S. 15. Servin T. 5. Tanda P. 11. Jhon Sanchez 28. Romero N. 7. Manzur A. 10. Rodriguez D. 40. Fernandez F.
Substitutes
18. Avalos A. 24. Ayala L. 5. Benitez H. 25. Bruno L. 30. Cabral R. 36. Leon M. 8. Moreira E. 9. Ocampos C. 19. Paredes A. 35. Sanchez A. (G) 32. Servian A.	31. Arzamendia M. (G) 32. Caceres M. 35. Centurion J. 38. Coronel P. 26. Fernandez D. 29. Llano J. 8. Lopez M. 36. Martinez L. 18. Mino Amarilla C. E. 9. Ramirez I. 14. Ramos M. 24. Velazquez J.
Coaches
Nanni R.	Bernay V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Benitez J. 🟨,
32', Romero N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Romero N. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
49', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
57', Portillo F. ↓, Bruno L. ↑,
57', Benitez J. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
65', Benitez M. ↓, Paredes A. ↑,
72', Fernandez F. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
72', Tanda P. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
73', Larralde V. 🟨,
78', Vera F. ↓, Ocampos C. ↑,
78', Contrera A. ↓, Cabral R. ↑,
81', Jhon Sanchez ↓, Mino Amarilla C. E. ↑,
87', 🟨,
87', 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 6 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 2.

Recent performances by Sportivo Ameliano have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guaraní has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sportivo Ameliano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Ameliano won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Guarani	13	5	6	2	14:10	4	21
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 36.46%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.03.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
19.02.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLLTW
- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
07.03.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
23.02.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.02.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
12.10.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1
31.07.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	4:1
18.05.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:3
10.03.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	2:0
12.10.24	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1
Copa Paraguay
02.10.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	1:2 penalties
Paraguayan Primera Division
07.08.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	2:2

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