Match Info

Primera B - Round 40

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Republica de Italia Stadium (Buenos Aires) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	15:00	LPF Play


	Sportivo Italiano		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	2.40	2.87	2.75
	2.52	2.72	2.8	Watch
	2.58	2.99	2.9
	2.54	2.89	2.83	Watch
	2.55	2.75	2.85
	2.58	3.05	2.84
	2.49	2.75	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.5)	2.86 ↓ (2.88)	2.82 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Italiano
36%

Draw
31.8%

Arsenal Sarandí
32.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.3%

30.7%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

30.2%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Italiano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Italiano than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Sportivo Italiano - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yordan G. (G) 4. Bifiguer C. 9. Caceres P. 8. Centurion F. 3. Daivez A. 11. Gimenez K. 10. Gomez F. 7. Laborda L. 6. Merzario E. 2. Ordonez C. 5. Rivero J.	1. Lobelos J. (G) 2. Brienzo N. 11. Del Col M. (C) 9. Franco L. 7. Frascone N. 3. Goncebat J. 8. Lucero M. 4. Payes A. 6. Peralta I. 10. Sosa M. 5. Vila J.
Substitutes
12. Alastra A. (G) 19. De Cuadro J. 13. Di Massimo F. 14. Durante P. 17. Fortino R. 16. Guerra A. 15. Guzman L. 18. Hirigoyen T. 20. Molina F.	14. Antilef A. 16. Cabrera I. 13. Caceres R. 18. La Roza U. 20. Ochoa J. 12. Pezzini N. (G) 17. Trombini M. 15. Vega A. 19. Wrubel E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Gomez F. 🟨,
65', Gomez F. ↓, Molina F. ↑,
65', Gimenez K. ↓, De Cuadro J. ↑,
76', Daivez A. 🟨,
86', Laborda L. ↓, Fortino R. ↑,
86', Caceres P. ↓, Hirigoyen T. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Primera B Promotion - Playoffs and 2nd in the Promotion - Primera B Promotion - Playoffs).

Sportivo Italiano is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Arsenal Sarandí have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Sportivo Italiano has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arsenal Sarandi ✔	41	21	13	7	55:27	28	76
4	Sportivo Italiano ✔	41	19	12	10	47:33	14	69

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Italiano - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.34%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Arsenal Sarandí - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 33.98%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Italiano
Argentinian Primera B
11.10.26	Argentino de Merlo - Sportivo Italiano	1:2 ✺
04.10.26	Sportivo Italiano - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Deportivo Laferrere - Sportivo Italiano	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Sportivo Italiano - Brown de Adrogué	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Deportivo Armenio - Sportivo Italiano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWTL
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera B
10.10.26	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Burzaco	3:1 ✺
03.10.26	Villa San Carlos - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Arsenal Sarandí - Liniers	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Real Pilar - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Arsenal Sarandí - UAI Urquiza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
06.06.26	Arsenal Sarandí - Sportivo Italiano	1:3

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