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Current Win Probability
Argentino de Merlo 30.2%
Draw 32.5%
Sportivo Italiano 37.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
28.5%
30.4%
41.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.6%
29.4%
43%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Argentino de Merlo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)
Sportivo Italiano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Argentino de Merlo than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Italiano than the current prediction. (+5.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sportivo Italiano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Argentino de Merlo - Sportivo Italiano Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Oviedo G. (G) 9. Aguirre D. E. 6. Cacace J. 11. Gomez M. 3. Lopez V. 2. Marcial C. 5. Rodriguez J. 8. Romero L. 10. Scisci G. 7. Sellecchia F. 4. Ursino D.
1. Yordan G. (G) 4. Bifiguer C. 9. Caceres P. 8. Centurion F. 3. Fantino L. 11. Gimenez K. 10. Gomez F. 7. Laborda L. 6. Merzario E. 2. Ordonez C. 5. Rivero J.
Substitutes
12. Bardagi N. (G) 17. Candelaresi T. 20. Jerez T. 13. Lopez F. 14. Maceri B. 16. Medina C. 18. Ortiz J. 15. Paz Sierra L. 19. Salvador A.
12. Alastra A. (G) 20. D'Acquila J. 15. Daivez A. 19. De Cuadro J. 13. Di Massimo F. 14. Durante P. 17. Fortino R. 16. Guerra A. 18. Hirigoyen T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Centurion F. ↓, Guerra A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
57', Fantino L. ↓, Daivez A. ↑,
59', Gimenez K. ↓, De Cuadro J. ↑,
61', Sellecchia F. ↓, Salvador A. ↑,
64', 0 - 1, Gomez F. ⚽,
74', Rodriguez J. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
74', Gomez M. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
78', Gomez F. ↓, Hirigoyen T. ↑,
78', Laborda L. ↓, Fortino R. ↑,
80', 0 - 2, Caceres P. ⚽,
89', Ursino D. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
89', Romero L. ↓, Jerez T. ↑,
90', Jerez T. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 2, ⚽,
Preview
A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 15th and 4th in the Promotion - Primera B Promotion - Playoffs).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Argentino de Merlo won 2.
Argentino de Merlo is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Sportivo Italiano shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Sportivo Italiano may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Sportivo Italiano holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Argentino de Merlo has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:16 (averaging 1.3:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Argentino de Merlo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 10:10 goals (averaging 1.7:1.7 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Sportivo Italiano ✔
41
19
12
10
47:33
14
69
15
Argentino de Merlo
41
12
11
18
37:44
-7
47
Last Results with these Odds
Argentino de Merlo - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 28.48%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.
Sportivo Italiano - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 41.07%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.