Match Info

Primera B - Round 23

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Republica de Italia Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sportivo Italiano		Real Pilar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.37	2.85	2.80
	2.45	2.78	2.92	Watch
	2.56	2.91	3.1
	2.55	2.69	3.03	Watch
	2.5	2.6	3
	2.45	3.03	3.03
	2.43	2.75	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.72)	2.8 ↑ (2.71)	2.97 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Italiano
36.8%

Draw
32.5%

Real Pilar
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

33.3%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

35.4%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Italiano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Real Pilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Italiano than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Pilar than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Sportivo Italiano - Real Pilar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yordan G. (G) 4. Bifiguer C. 7. Caceres P. 10. Centurion F. 2. Durante P. 3. Fantino L. 8. Guerra A. 9. Guzman M. 11. Laborda L. 6. Merzario E. 5. Rivero J.	1. Perafan P. (G) 6. Basualdo N. 8. Camargo T. 11. Crocco M. (C) 3. Franco E. 2. Gelos V. 4. Leguiza D. 10. Mancini V. 7. Martin B. 5. Rios N. 9. Rodriguez E.
Substitutes
12. Alastra A. (G) 19. D'Acquila 14. Daivez A. 13. Di Massimo F. 17. Fortino R. 18. Gimenez K. 16. Guzman L. 20. Hirigoyen T. 15. Ordonez C.	19. Cesar J. 13. Escurra N. 17. Gonzalez D. 14. Isola G. 18. Martinez F. 16. Pansardi F. 15. Rojas M. 12. Sanchez S. (G) 20. Vergara D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Gelos V. 🟨,
16', Centurion F. ↓, Gimenez K. ↑,
20', Rodriguez E. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Durante P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Basualdo N. ↓, Escurra N. ↑,
48', Bifiguer C. 🟨,
59', Durante P. 🟨,
63', Mancini V. ↓, Vergara D. ↑,
63', Martin B. ↓, Cesar J. ↑,
64', Rios N. 🟨,
73', Guerra A. ↓, Ordonez C. ↑,
73', Laborda L. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
79', Crocco M. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
79', Camargo T. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
81', Caceres P. ↓, Fortino R. ↑,
81', Fantino L. ↓, Daivez A. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Italiano won 2.

Sportivo Italiano is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real Pilar's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sportivo Italiano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sportivo Italiano could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Italiano won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Italiano won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	18	11	9	45:28	17	65
7	Real Pilar	38	17	10	11	42:38	4	61

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Italiano - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.15%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Italiano
Argentinian Primera B
28.06.26	UAI Urquiza - Sportivo Italiano	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Villa Dálmine - Sportivo Italiano	2:1 ✺
13.06.26	Sportivo Italiano - Excursionistas	0:1 ✺
06.06.26	Arsenal Sarandí - Sportivo Italiano	1:3 ✺
31.05.26	Sportivo Italiano - Argentino de Merlo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TLLWL
- Real Pilar FC
Argentinian Primera B
27.06.26	Real Pilar - San Martín de Burzaco	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Real Pilar - Villa San Carlos	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Liniers - Real Pilar	0:1 ✺
05.06.26	Ituzaingó - Real Pilar	2:0 ✺
30.05.26	Real Pilar - UAI Urquiza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
21.02.26	Real Pilar - Sportivo Italiano	1:2
30.08.25	Real Pilar - Sportivo Italiano	1:1
12.04.25	Sportivo Italiano - Real Pilar	2:2
Argentinian Primera C
05.08.23	Real Pilar - Sportivo Italiano	1:1
01.04.23	Sportivo Italiano - Real Pilar	1:0
27.08.22	Sportivo Italiano - Real Pilar	1:1
23.04.22	Real Pilar - Sportivo Italiano	0:0

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