Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 16 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4


	Sportivo Luqueño		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.5	1.8	Watch
	4.2	3.5	1.82
	4.2	3.6	1.8
	4.55	3.58	1.85
	4.55	3.58	1.81
	4.2	3.5	1.73	Watch
	4.27	3.6	1.81	Watch
	4.5	3.5	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.37 ↓ (5.6)	3.55 ↓ (3.72)	1.8 ↑ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Luqueño
21.4%

Draw
26.4%

Red Bull Bragantino
52.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

24.8%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

24.3%

60%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Luqueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Red Bull Bragantino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sportivo Luqueño that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Red Bull Bragantino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Sportivo Luqueño - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Users Predictions: Red Bull Bragantino will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Falcon G. (G) 20. Otalvaro S. 24. Ledesma A. 4. Leguizamon J. 34. Vera Cabrera D. R. 7. Alegre D. 16. Rios R. D. 14. Benitez F. 26. Fernandez D. (C) 11. Fretes S. 22. Ferreira M.	1. Cleiton (C) 45. Nathan Mendes 3. Eduardo Santos 29. Juninho Capixaba 36. Luan Candido 22. Gustavinho 7. Eric Ramires 35. Matheus Fernandes 11. Helinho 18. Borbas T. 30. Mosquera H.
Substitutes
12. Aguilar A. (G) 9. Alvarez A. 19. Barrios L. 27. Benitez J. 37. Comas L. 2. Ferreira R. 35. Gaona H. (G) 10. Mana N. 8. Mendoza J. 18. Rojas R. 5. Villalba A. 3. Villalba I.	17. Bruninho 39. Douglas Mendes 55. Everton 31. Guilherme Lopes 5. Jadsom Silva 33. Laquintana I. 10. Lincoln 40. Lucao (G) 4. Lucas Cunha 8. Lucas Evangelista 21. Talisson 28. Vitinho
Coaches
Caceres J. C.	Caixinha P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Ferreira M. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Helinho ⚽, Eric Ramires (A),
19', Juninho Capixaba 🟨,
37', 2 - 1, Leguizamon J. ⚽, Otalvaro S. (A),
44', Eric Ramires ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
44', Gustavinho ↓, Lincoln ↑,
45', Juninho Capixaba ↓, Lucas Cunha ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', Lincoln 🟨,
51', Benitez F. 🟨,
69', Nathan Mendes ↓, Laquintana I. ↑,
70', Otalvaro S. ↓, Ferreira R. ↑,
70', Fretes S. ↓, Villalba A. ↑,
70', Ferreira M. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Lincoln ⚽,
74', Matheus Fernandes ↓, Talisson ↑,
77', Alegre D. ↓, Mana N. ↑,
79', Fernandez D. ↓, Comas L. ↑,
80', 2 - 3, Helinho ⚽, Talisson (A),
90+3', Eduardo Santos 🟨,
90+3', Rios R. D. 🟨,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

RB Bragantino could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match RB Bragantino is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sportivo Luqueño won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.05.24	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.24	Sportivo Luqueño - Coquimbo Unido	0:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	0:1 ✺
27.04.24	Sportivo Luqueño - Tacuary	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Sportivo Luqueño	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTWLL
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
12.05.24	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.05.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Racing	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.24	Sousa - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Fortaleza - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
24.04.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Sportivo Luqueño	2:1

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