Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Gilabert F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 3


	Sportivo Trinidense		Nacional Potosí

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	6.5	Watch
	1.49	4.2	6
	1.47	4.5	6	Watch
	1.5	4.34	6.4
	1.42	4.29	6.39
	1.4	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.47	4.45	6.24	Watch
	1.47	4.3	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.64)	4.33 ↑ (3.7)	6.25 ↑ (4.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Trinidense
63.6%

Draw
21.5%

Nacional Potosí
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

25%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

24.3%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Trinidense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sportivo Trinidense's performance.

Nacional Potosí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Trinidense than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sportivo Trinidense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Potosí than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Potosí Predictions

Users Predictions: Sportivo Trinidense will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Samudio V. (G) 21. Canete A. 4. Flores G. 23. Benitez C. 20. Alonso W. 7. Arce P. 28. Riveros M. 13. Salcedo J. 10. Delvalle P. 9. Gimenez O. 18. Romero F.	1. Mustafa S. (G) 16. Torrico A. 2. Ortiz M. 6. Restrepo E. 5. Mancilla D. 20. Prost M. 22. Hoyos J. 18. Azogue P. 23. Baldomar O. 19. Callejo F. 9. Cristaldo G.
Substitutes
30. Andrada B. 11. Bonetto J. 22. Borja E. 6. Jorge J. 32. Martinez C. 8. Mercado Carrizo D. A. 35. Pereira A. 1. Quinonez W. (G) 29. Rayer T. 38. Sinisterra J. 5. Vera J. 3. Villalba D.	25. Adorno C. (G) 29. Alvarez W. 15. Andia J. 14. Anez O. 13. Cabrera A. 11. Duarte W. 10. Galindo S. 3. Guerra J. 17. Guerra S. 8. Pavia L.
Coaches
Arrua J.	Mur A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Romero F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Delvalle P. ↓, Andrada B. ↑,
46', Arce P. ↓, Rayer T. ↑,
46', Alonso W. 🟨,
52', Rayer T. 🟨,
62', 2 - 0, Salcedo J. ⚽, Gimenez O. (A),
71', Torrico A. ↓, Guerra S. ↑,
71', Cristaldo G. ↓, Duarte W. ↑,
72', Alonso W. ↓, Vera J. ↑,
80', Andrada B. ↓, Bonetto J. ↑,
80', Romero F. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
82', Azogue P. 🟨,
83', Hoyos J. ↓, Galindo S. ↑,
88', Azogue P. ↓, Alvarez W. ↑,

Preview

Both teams have a series of defeats in the last matches.

Sportivo Trinidense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Sportivo Trinidense is the unquestionable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Trinidense
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	2:0 ✺
12.04.24	Sportivo Trinidense - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Boca Juniors - Sportivo Trinidense	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
06.04.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Nacional Potosí
Bolivian Division Profesional
17.04.24	Universitario de Vinto - Nacional Potosí	3:1 ✺
14.04.24	Nacional Potosí - Universitario de Vinto	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Fortaleza - Nacional Potosí	5:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.04.24	Blooming - Nacional Potosí	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Nacional Potosí - Boca Juniors	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLT

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