Match Info

Super League - Round 3

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Kybunpark (St. Gallen)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4, Arena Premium 5
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	St. Gallen		Luzern

	1	X	2
	1.71	4.33	4.00	Watch
	1.75	4.20	3.80
	1.85	3.85	3.65
	1.81	4.30	4.15
	1.86	4.09	3.68	Watch
	1.76	4.25	4.10
	1.78	4.05	3.88	Watch
	1.77	4.20	3.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.15)	4.16 ↑ (3.63)	3.9 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Gallen
53%

Draw
22.7%

Luzern
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

26%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

26.7%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Gallen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St. Gallen's performance.

Luzern has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luzern might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Gallen than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St. Gallen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luzern could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

St. Gallen - Luzern Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Gallen will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ati Zigi L. (G) 74. Ruiz J. 4. Stanic J. 36. Okoroji C. 28. Vandermersch H. 16. Gortler L. (C) 10. Daschner L. 20. Frokaj L. 64. Stevanovic M. 7. Witzig C. 14. Balde A.	1. Simoni S. (G) 20. Dorn P. (C) 13. Freimann B. H. 5. Knezevic S. 22. Dantas Fernandes R. 6. Bertone L. 10. Silva L. 16. Kabwit O. 11. Di Giusto M. 14. Ciganiks A. 71. Meyer S.
Substitutes
31. Besio D. 23. Fazliji B. 68. Heydari M. 9. Hunziker A. 3. Kleine-Bekel C. 63. Konietzke C. 47. Owusu E. 25. Watkowiak L. (G)	3. Lofgren J. 21. Luthi L. 19. Mikolajewski D. 7. Oehlers A. 63. Radtke R. (G) 15. Toggenburger N. 27. Villiger L. 34. Xhemalija D. 80. Zimmermann M.
Coaches
Maassen E.	Portmann J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Bertone L. 🟨,
22', Freimann B. H. 🟨,
29', Daschner L. 🟨,
38', Silva L. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Daschner L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Dantas Fernandes R. ↓, Mikolajewski D. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Mikolajewski D. ⚽, Di Giusto M. (A),
52', Frokaj L. 🟨,
55', Vandermersch H. ↓, Owusu E. ↑,
55', Daschner L. ↓, Hunziker A. ↑,
59', Ciganiks A. 🟨,
64', Meyer S. ↓, Toggenburger N. ↑,
69', Frokaj L. ↓, Fazliji B. ↑,
79', Silva L. ↓, Zimmermann M. ↑,
79', Kabwit O. ↓, Oehlers A. ↑,
80', Stanic J. ↓, Kleine-Bekel C. ↑,
80', Witzig C. ↓, Konietzke C. ↑,
83', Knezevic S. ↓, Lofgren J. ↑,
89', 1 - 2, Di Giusto M. ⚽, Oehlers A. (A),
90+4', Zimmermann M. 🟨,
90+7', Mikolajewski D. 🟨,
90+11', 2 - 2, Gortler L. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Gallen won 0.

St. Gallen is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Luzern's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

St. Gallen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

St. Gallen is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in St. Gallen: Ambrosius S. (Knee Injury) Efekele M. (Thigh Injury) May C. (Knee Injury) Neziri B. (Knee Injury) Scherrer N. (Injury) Weibel N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Luzern: Owusu T. (Red Card) Winkler L. (Injury)

There are questionable in St. Gallen: Gaal T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St. Gallen won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 30:37. (average 1.5:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Gallen won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.7:1.6).

Outrights of Swiss Super League for now

St. Gallen: 5.75% Luzern: 1.66%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	St. Gallen	9	4	1	4	16:19	-3	13
6	Luzern	9	3	3	3	17:18	-1	12

Last Results with these Odds

St. Gallen - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 44.09%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Gallen
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Sheriff Tiraspol - St. Gallen	1:3 ✺
Swiss Super League
02.08.26	Vaduz - St. Gallen	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.07.26	Benfica - St. Gallen	5:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
26.07.26	St. Gallen - Zürich	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.07.26	St. Gallen - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWLWW
- FC Luzern
Swiss Super League
02.08.26	Sion - Luzern	3:0 ✺
25.07.26	Luzern - Thun	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Luzern - Sint-Truidense	1:2 ✺
10.07.26	Wil 1900 - Luzern	0:2 ✺
04.07.26	Luzern - Winterthur	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
12.04.26	Luzern - St. Gallen	2:2
01.02.26	Luzern - St. Gallen	2:2
24.08.25	St. Gallen - Luzern	0:1
03.04.25	Luzern - St. Gallen	1:1
02.02.25	Luzern - St. Gallen	2:0
21.09.24	St. Gallen - Luzern	2:3
01.04.24	St. Gallen - Luzern	1:1

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