Match Info

League Cup

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: The SMISA Stadium (Paisley)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Match 4
Italy	Como TV
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	St. Mirren		Ayr United

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.55	4	5
	1.65	3.95	4.55	Watch
	1.6	4.09	4.58
	1.81	3.53	4.18	Watch
	1.55	4	5
	1.61	4.15	4.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.54)	3.95 ↓ (4.5)	4.62 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Mirren
56.7%

Draw
23.3%

Ayr United
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.1%

20.5%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

20.2%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Mirren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Mirren than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

St. Mirren - Ayr United Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. St. Mirren will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Ayr will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Mirren (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - St. Mirren (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Mirren (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. George S. (G) 22. Fraser M. 13. Gogic A. 5. King R. 2. Richardson J. 88. Phillips K. 6. O'Hara M. (C) 30. Taylor F. 24. John D. 9. Mandron M. 7. Idowu R.	1. Mitchell D. (G) 4. Want S. 5. Holt K. 2. McAllister N. 33. McMann S. 23. Rus M. 22. McKenzie M. 15. Murphy J. (C) 3. Dick L. 10. Main C. 21. Walker E.
Substitutes
11. Ayunga J. . Calvin J. 20. Freckleton M. 4. Iacovitti A. 10. McMenamin C. 33. Mooney E. 31. Mullen R. (G) 8. Smyth O. . Sobowale T.	17. Bonnar J. 16. Hastie J. 9. Oakley G. 38. Russell L. (G) 11. Thomas D. 54. Ure K. 32. Watret D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Phillips K. ⚽, Idowu R. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Phillips K. ⚽, Idowu R. (A),
42', Walker E. 🟨,
42', King R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Want S. ↓, Oakley G. ↑,
46', Rus M. ↓, Bonnar J. ↑,
60', Murphy J. ↓, Thomas D. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Holt K. ⚽,
67', Idowu R. ↓, McMenamin C. ↑,
67', Taylor F. ↓, Smyth O. ↑,
67', Mandron M. ↓, Ayunga J. ↑,
82', King R. ↓, Iacovitti A. ↑,
87', McAllister N. 🟨,
89', Walker E. ↓, Ure K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Mirren won 4.

St. Mirren is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ayr's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ayr may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, St. Mirren has had a series of away games.

In this match, St. Mirren is a strong favorite.

We predict that St. Mirren will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, St. Mirren won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:6. (average 2.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Mirren won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:5. (average 3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. Mirren
Scottish League Cup
19.07.25	St. Mirren - Annan Athletic	8:2 ✺
15.07.25	Forfar Athletic - St. Mirren	1:2 ✺
12.07.25	Arbroath - St. Mirren	1:0 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
08.07.25	Airdrieonians - St. Mirren	0:2 ✺
05.07.25	Milton Keynes Dons - St. Mirren	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWLWW
- Ayr United
Scottish League Cup
22.07.25	Ayr United - Forfar Athletic	3:0 ✺
19.07.25	Ayr United - Arbroath	4:0 ✺
15.07.25	Annan Athletic - Ayr United	1:6 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.25	Kilmarnock - Ayr United	1:0 ✺
01.07.25	Spartans - Ayr United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Cup
22.01.22	Ayr United - St. Mirren	0:2
Scottish Football Championship
01.04.17	St. Mirren - Ayr United	6:2
25.02.17	Ayr United - St. Mirren	0:2
17.12.16	St. Mirren - Ayr United	1:1
Scottish Challenge Cup
13.11.16	St. Mirren - Ayr United	2:1
Scottish Football Championship
27.08.16	Ayr United - St. Mirren	1:1
Scottish League Cup
19.07.16	St. Mirren - Ayr United	1:0

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