Match Info

Championship - Round 25

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Gayfield Park (Arbroath)

Referee: Hardie R. (Sco)


	Arbroath		Ayr United

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.25	3.2	2.7
	2.4	3.25	2.82	Watch
	2.41	3.33	2.99
	2.36	3.4	2.89	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.9
	2.3	3.15	2.88	Watch
	2.6	3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.45)	3.21 ↑ (3.15)	2.84 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Arbroath
38.8%

Draw
28.8%

Ayr United
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

29%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.8%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	44.4%	22.2%

Arbroath - Ayr United Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Arbroath will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Ayr will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ayr (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ayr (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McAdams A. (G) 16. Watson C. 6. Muirhead A. 2. Lang T. 4. Wilkie J. 26. Beadling T. 8. Flynn R. (C) 12. Stewart S. 17. Marshall F. 15. MacIntyre J. 28. Robinson S.	31. Thompson M. (G) 20. King L. 5. Holt K. 33. McMann S. 55. Finney G. 8. Dempsey B. (C) 6. Bannigan S. 16. Summers B. 3. Dick L. 22. McKenzie M. 7. Dowds A.
Substitutes
25. Cochrane H. 11. Dow R. 27. Enem V. 7. Gold D. 3. Hamilton C. 62. Mebude D. 21. Pettigrew J. (G) 10. Reilly G.	17. Bonnar J. 18. Hislop J. 2. McAllister N. 29. McRoberts L. 23. Rus M. 38. Russell L. (G) 66. Turley F. 14. Ure K. 4. Want S.
Coaches
Hamilton C.	Brown S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Muirhead A. ↓, Dow R. ↑,
55', Beadling T. ↓, Cochrane H. ↑,
61', Finney G. ↓, McAllister N. ↑,
61', Bannigan S. ↓, Ure K. ↑,
67', Lang T. 🟨,
67', Robinson S. ↓, Reilly G. ↑,
71', Dempsey B. 🟨,
73', Summers B. ↓, Bonnar J. ↑,
73', Dick L. ↓, Rus M. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Marshall F. ⚽, Dow R. (A),
80', Flynn R. ↓, Mebude D. ↑,
85', McKenzie M. ↓, Turley F. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Dowds A. ⚽, Rus M. (A),
90', McMann S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 0.

Arbroath is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ayr has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arbroath may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbroath won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.3:0.6).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Ayr: 1.52% Arbroath: 1.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ayr	10	3	3	4	10:11	-1	12
8	Arbroath	10	3	2	5	7:15	-8	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbroath
Scottish Football Championship
28.02.26	Partick Thistle - Arbroath	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	4:2 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
03.02.26	Arbroath - Airdrieonians	2:3 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
31.01.26	Queens Park - Arbroath	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Arbroath - Greenock Morton	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWLLT
- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
28.02.26	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	3:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
24.02.26	Ayr United - Inverness	1:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
21.02.26	Ayr United - Ross County	0:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
17.02.26	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	3:4 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
31.01.26	Ayr United - Raith Rovers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
15.11.25	Ayr United - Arbroath	1:1
01.08.25	Arbroath - Ayr United	1:1
Scottish League Cup
19.07.25	Ayr United - Arbroath	4:0
Scottish Football Championship
13.04.24	Ayr United - Arbroath	5:0
23.01.24	Ayr United - Arbroath	2:0
13.01.24	Arbroath - Ayr United	0:0
02.09.23	Arbroath - Ayr United	2:1

Upcoming Matches