Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	OneFootball TV


	St. Pauli		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.50	2.63	Watch
	2.50	3.60	2.60
	2.38	3.65	2.70	Watch
	2.61	3.79	2.68
	2.48	3.73	2.62	Watch
	2.60	3.75	2.55
	2.59	3.56	2.59	Watch
	2.50	3.55	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.67)	3.64 ↑ (3.58)	2.62 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
37.8%

Draw
26%

Wolfsburg
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

26.1%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

26%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

St. Pauli - Wolfsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Wolfsburg will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wolfsburg: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Voll B. (G) 11. Pyrka A. 4. Nemeth D. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 23. Oppie L. 8. Smith E. 7. Niang Y. 20. Rasmussen M. 16. Fujita J. 24. Metcalfe C. 9. Ceesay A.	30. Zielinski J. (G) 2. Fischer K. 6. Wahl H. (C) 33. Cleiton 21. Maehle J. 20. Damar M. 5. Vini Souza 32. Svanberg M. 17. Bernhardsson A. 7. Shiogai K. 11. Reese F.
Substitutes
14. Ahlstrand E. 17. Banks S. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 26. Jones R.J. 19. Kaars M. 22. Klein S. 33. Mitov D. (G) 46. Westphal J.	18. Adjetey J. 27. Arnold M. 23. Besio A. 8. Dardai B. 31. Gerhardt Y. 14. Hensel P. 42. Katz B. 12. Pervan P. (G) 25. Zehnter A.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Strobl T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Ritzka L. 🟨,
12', Cleiton 🟨,
32', Ceesay A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Damar M. ↓, Dardai B. ↑,
65', Cleiton ↓, Adjetey J. ↑,
67', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
70', Niang Y. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
74', Shiogai K. ↓, Gerhardt Y. ↑,
74', Svanberg M. ↓, Arnold M. ↑,
78', Strobl T. 🟨,
82', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Besio A. ↑,
85', Maehle J. 🟨,
88', 1 - 0, Fujita J. ⚽,
90+1', Ceesay A. ↓, Hara T. ↑,
90+1', Metcalfe C. ↓, Klein S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0.

St. Pauli is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Wolfsburg is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

St. Pauli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Pereira Lage M. (Knee Injury) Thordarson G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Angely M. (Red Card) Benedict T. (Injury) Eriksen C. (Heart Problems) Hornby F. (Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Wellenreuther T. (Knee Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Wolfsburg: 26.67% St. Pauli: 4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Wolfsburg	7	3	3	1	19:12	7	12
10	St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	8:8	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Wolfsburg - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.88%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
04.09.26	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
14.08.26	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
09.08.26	St. Pauli - Greuther Fürth	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLTT
- VfL Wolfsburg
German 2 Bundesliga
05.09.26	Wolfsburg - Energie Cottbus	4:4 ✺
29.08.26	Karlsruher - Wolfsburg	2:5 ✺
German DFB Pokal
24.08.26	Altglienicke - Wolfsburg	3:4 penalties ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
16.08.26	Hannover - Wolfsburg	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Wolfsburg - Kaiserslautern	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
16.05.26	St. Pauli - Wolfsburg	1:3
14.01.26	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	2:1
08.03.25	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	1:1
26.10.24	St. Pauli - Wolfsburg	0:0
Club Friendly
05.01.18	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	3:1
10.07.12	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	N/A

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