Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 9

Date: 22 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Kochanek M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Family, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Stal Mielec		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.85
	2.4	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.52	3.21	3.01
	2.48	3.2	2.99
	2.38	3.2	2.75
	2.44	3.26	2.83	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.1)	3.19 ↓ (3.4)	2.87 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
38.3%

Draw
29.2%

Motor Lublin
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

28.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stal Mielec's form might have worsened.

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stal Mielec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Motor Lublin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Stal Mielec - Motor Lublin Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Motor will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 21. Matras M. 15. Senger M. 23. Getinger K. (C) 6. Guillaumier M. 8. Hinokio K. 96. Dadok R. 43. Krykun S. 17. Shkurin I. 10. Domanski M.	40. Brkic I. (G) 17. Wojcik F. 21. Rudol S. 39. Bartos M. 24. Luberecki F. 68. Wolski B. 6. Samper S. 22. Simon C. 26. Krol M. 90. Mraz S. 30. Ndiaye M. J.
Substitutes
9. Assayag R. 40. Bagalianis P. 32. Gerbowski F. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 27. Jaunzems A. 20. Knap K. 19. Tkacz D. 11. Wolkowicz K. 25. Wolsztynski L.	11. Caliskaner K. 55. Gasior M. 18. Najemski A. 47. Palacz K. 3. Romanowski P. 1. Rosa K. (G) 37. Scalet M. 28. Stolarski P. 9. Welniak K.
Coaches
Niedzwiedz J.	Stolarski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Krykun S. ⚽, Dadok R. (A),
61', Ndiaye M. J. 🟨,
62', Samper S. ↓, Gasior M. ↑,
62', Bartos M. ↓, Najemski A. ↑,
62', Simon C. ↓, Caliskaner K. ↑,
75', Luberecki F. ↓, Palacz K. ↑,
75', Hinokio K. ↓, Knap K. ↑,
75', Krykun S. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
80', Wojcik F. ↓, Stolarski P. ↑,
86', Shkurin I. ↓, Wolsztynski L. ↑,
86', Domanski M. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
87', Dadok R. ↓, Jaunzems A. ↑,
90+2', Assayag R. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 11).

Stal Mielec is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Motor is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Motor could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Injury) Pajnowski K. (Injury)

There will not play in Motor: Kruk K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stal Mielec: Cetnar A. (Injury) Wlazlo P. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.08.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
26.08.24	Korona Kielce - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
19.08.24	Stal Mielec - Piast Gliwice	2:0 ✺
10.08.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
03.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWLL
- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.09.24	Motor Lublin - Górnik Zabrze	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
07.09.24	Motor Lublin - Pogoń Siedlce	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Motor Lublin	5:2 ✺
24.08.24	Motor Lublin - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:0 ✺
16.08.24	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 2 - East
21.05.14	Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec	0:1

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