Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 5

Date: 19 August 2024, Monday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Kos D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Stal Mielec		Piast Gliwice

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.1	1.91	Watch
	4.1	3.2	1.93
	4	3.2	1.95	Watch
	4.66	3.22	1.97
	3.96	3.23	2.05	Watch
	3.9	3.25	1.85
	4.08	3.34	1.92	Watch
	4	3.2	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.13 ↑ (3.47)	3.22 ↑ (3.04)	1.94 ↓ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
22.7%

Draw
29.1%

Piast Gliwice
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

29.4%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

28%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Piast Gliwice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Piast Gliwice than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	13.3%	76.7%

Stal Mielec - Piast Gliwice Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 3 - 10%). Piast will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Piast: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 3. Esselink B. 21. Matras M. 15. Senger M. 6. Guillaumier M. 27. Jaunzems A. 8. Hinokio K. 10. Domanski M. (C) 11. Wolkowicz K. 25. Wolsztynski L. 17. Shkurin I.	26. Plach F. (G) 77. Pyrka A. 2. Mosor A. 4. Czerwinski J. (C) 5. Huk T. 10. Dziczek P. 20. Tomasiewicz G. 96. Kostadinov T. 6. Chrapek M. 19. Ameyaw M. 39. Rosolek M.
Substitutes
9. Assayag R. 33. Bukowski A. 96. Dadok R. 32. Gerbowski F. 23. Getinger K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 22. Rafa Santos 37. Stepien M. 19. Tkacz D.	29. Drapinski I. 92. Kadzior D. 17. Karbowy F. 11. Krykun S. 3. Miguelito 22. Mokwa T. 23. Mucha S. 30. Szczepanski M. 33. Szymanski K. (G)
Coaches
Kieres K.	Vukovic A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Wolkowicz K. 🟨,
13', Wolsztynski L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mosor A. ↓, Drapinski I. ↑,
46', Kostadinov T. ↓, Kadzior D. ↑,
62', Wolkowicz K. ↓, Getinger K. ↑,
62', Hinokio K. ↓, Bukowski A. ↑,
63', Matras M. 🟨,
71', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
72', Jaunzems A. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
73', Chrapek M. ↓, Szczepanski M. ↑,
77', Domanski M. 🟨,
79', 1 - 0, Shkurin I. ⚽, Guillaumier M. (A),
80', Shkurin I. 🟨,
85', 2 - 0, Assayag R. ⚽, Bukowski A. (A),
90', Ameyaw M. ↓, Mucha S. ↑,
90+2', Domanski M. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 0.

Stal Mielec is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Piast is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Piast could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Piast is a favorite.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Injury) Getinger K. (Injury) Pajnowski K. (Injury) Senger M. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 6-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Stal Mielec won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.08.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
03.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
27.07.24	Stal Mielec - GKS Katowice	0:1 ✺
22.07.24	Stal Mielec - Widzew Łódź	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.24	Stal Rzeszów - Stal Mielec	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLTW
- Piast Gliwice
Polish Ekstraklasa
12.08.24	Piast Gliwice - GKS Katowice	2:2 ✺
04.08.24	Legia Warsaw - Piast Gliwice	1:2 ✺
28.07.24	Piast Gliwice - Śląsk Wrocław	2:0 ✺
21.07.24	Cracovia - Piast Gliwice	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.24	Piast Gliwice - Karviná	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
18.12.23	Piast Gliwice - Stal Mielec	3:0
30.07.23	Stal Mielec - Piast Gliwice	0:0
03.03.23	Stal Mielec - Piast Gliwice	0:2
Polish Cup
18.10.22	Stal Mielec - Piast Gliwice	0:3 ET
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.08.22	Piast Gliwice - Stal Mielec	4:0
18.12.21	Piast Gliwice - Stal Mielec	1:1
31.07.21	Stal Mielec - Piast Gliwice	0:2

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