Match Info

Division 1 - Round 19

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Malyszek J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Stal Mielec		Znicz Pruszków

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	2.63	Watch
	2.28	3.55	2.72	Watch
	2.42	3.7	2.88
	2.34	3.51	2.84	Watch
	2.2	3.4	2.75
	2.33	3.59	2.77	Watch
	2.25	3.66	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.18)	3.54 ↓ (3.55)	2.77 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
40.5%

Draw
26.1%

Znicz Pruszków
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

26.2%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

25.3%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Znicz Pruszków has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Znicz Pruszków than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Stal Mielec - Znicz Pruszków Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matys M. (G) 27. Diez A. 10. Domanski M. 25. Fucak K. 90. Kruszelnicki P. 5. Matynia H. 6. Pisek J. 44. Puerto I. 15. Senger M. 20. Szeliga B. 18. Wlazlo P.	12. Misztal P. (G) 29. Bak D. 20. Borecki M. 5. Jach J. 99. Koprowski O. 11. Moskwik P. 14. Okhronchuk V. 80. Plewka P. 8. Proczek T. 7. Sokol D. 22. Tabara K.
Substitutes
32. Gerbowski F. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 3. Kowalik P. 21. Kwiatkowski P. 9. Losada M. 17. Mazurek D. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 11. Odolak K. 77. Sadlocha K.	10. Ciepiela B. 19. Karol M. 17. Kazimierczak A. 25. Konieczny D. 21. Mak M. 53. Nadolski A. 23. Napieraj K. (G) 6. Pawlik M. 77. Skladowski F.
Coaches
Mamrot I.	Struhar P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Okhronchuk V. 🟨,
31', Szeliga B. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
33', 0 - 1, Tabara K. ⚽, Proczek T. (A),
41', Koprowski O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tabara K. ↓, Karol M. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Puerto I. ⚽,
65', Diez A. 🟨,
68', Koprowski O. ↓, Pawlik M. ↑,
70', Bak D. ↓, Nadolski A. ↑,
70', Proczek T. ↓, Kazimierczak A. ↑,
73', Kruszelnicki P. 🟨,
73', Pisek J. ↓, Losada M. ↑,
78', Puerto I. 🟨,
83', Fucak K. 🟨,
84', 1 - 2, Jach J. ⚽,
86', Diez A. ↓, Odolak K. ↑,
90+2', Karol M. ↓, Ciepiela B. ↑,
90+4', Sokol D. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 3.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Stal Mielec may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 2.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Mielec won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 2.3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
30.11.25	Wisła Kraków - Stal Mielec	3:0 ✺
22.11.25	Polonia Bytom - Stal Mielec	4:1 ✺
08.11.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce	0:0 ✺
05.11.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Stal Mielec - Miedź Legnica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTTL
- Znicz Pruszków
Polish Division 1
30.11.25	Znicz Pruszków - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Ruch Chorzów - Znicz Pruszków	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Znicz Pruszków - Chrobry Głogów	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Polonia Bytom - Znicz Pruszków	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
28.10.25	Znicz Pruszków - Korona Kielce	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
25.07.25	Znicz Pruszków - Stal Mielec	4:5
Club Friendly
17.01.24	Stal Mielec - Znicz Pruszków	0:1
Polish Division 1
28.04.17	Znicz Pruszków - Stal Mielec	1:0
01.10.16	Stal Mielec - Znicz Pruszków	3:1
Polish Division 2
05.03.16	Stal Mielec - Znicz Pruszków	3:1
15.08.15	Znicz Pruszków - Stal Mielec	1:2
14.03.15	Stal Mielec - Znicz Pruszków	3:3

Upcoming Matches