Match Info

League One - Round 36

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Ochilview Park (Stenhousemuir)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Pars TV


	Stenhousemuir		Dumbarton

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	5
	1.55	4	4.4
	1.53	4.3	5.2
	1.54	4.76	4.8
	1.55	4.57	4.99	Watch
	1.6	4	5
	1.56	4.26	5.19	Watch
	1.53	4.3	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.78)	4.27 ↑ (3.69)	4.97 ↑ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stenhousemuir
59.7%

Draw
21.6%

Dumbarton
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

24.8%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

24.7%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stenhousemuir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stenhousemuir's performance.

Dumbarton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dumbarton might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stenhousemuir than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stenhousemuir that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dumbarton could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Stenhousemuir will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Dumbarton will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jamieson D. (G) 2. Meechan R. 4. Buchanan G. 25. Fisher S. 21. Ewen K. 6. Wedderburn N. 17. Anderson M. 24. Alston B. 7. O'Reilly E. 9. Aitken M. 10. Yates M.	28. Kelly S. (G) 18. Webster K. 5. Durnan M. (C) 22. Shiels M. 21. McGuffie C. 20. Niang M. 6. Blair R. 17. Hilton J. 24. Clark C. 11. Wallace T. 23. Ruth M.
Substitutes
15. Banner K. 14. Bilham K. 26. Mcluckie B. 27. Morrison J. (G) 18. O'Donnell C. 11. Tomlinson S.	14. Gilfedder A. 10. Gray F. 2. Lynas A. 9. Mumbongo J. 7. Orsi K. 26. Queen Z. 13. Smallwood L. 8. Wilson D. 3. Young G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Aitken M. ⚽,
19', Meechan R. 🟨,
45', Niang M. 🟨,
45', Niang M. ↓, Wilson D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fisher S. ↓, Bilham K. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Shiels M. ⚽, Durnan M. (A),
60', 2 - 1, Alston B. ⚽,
64', Hilton J. ↓, Orsi K. ↑,
64', Wallace T. ↓, Mumbongo J. ↑,
64', Ruth M. ↓, Gray F. ↑,
72', Yates M. ↓, Mcluckie B. ↑,
72', Wedderburn N. ↓, Banner K. ↑,
78', Alston B. ↓, O'Donnell C. ↑,
85', Bilham K. 🟥,
85', Shiels M. 🟨,
85', Mumbongo J. 🟨,
89', O'Reilly E. ↓, Tomlinson S. ↑,
90', Anderson M. 🟨,
90+4', Mcluckie B. 🟨,
90+5', Aitken M. 🟨,

Preview

Dumbarton is Relegated to League Two

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stenhousemuir won 4.

Stenhousemuir is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Dumbarton is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Stenhousemuir is seen as the favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Stenhousemuir won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Stenhousemuir won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stenhousemuir
Scottish League One
26.04.25	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Stenhousemuir - Inverness	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Arbroath - Stenhousemuir	4:0 ✺
05.04.25	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	1:4 ✺
29.03.25	Stenhousemuir - Montrose	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- Dumbarton
Scottish League One
26.04.25	Dumbarton - Annan Athletic	3:1 ✺
19.04.25	Montrose - Dumbarton	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Dumbarton - Cove Rangers	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton	0:6 ✺
29.03.25	Alloa Athletic - Dumbarton	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
01.03.25	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	1:3
07.12.24	Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton	4:0
05.10.24	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	1:3
Scottish League Two
30.03.24	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	0:0
03.02.24	Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton	1:0
09.12.23	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	0:1
26.08.23	Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton	2:4

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