Match Info

FA Cup - 1/128-finals

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Lamex Stadium (Stevenage)


	Stevenage Borough		Chesterfield

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.8	4.33
	1.78	3.7	4.45
	1.83	3.40	4.29	Watch
	1.74	3.78	4.32	Watch
	1.65	4.3	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.52)	3.8 ↓ (3.95)	4.38 ↓ (5.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
53.9%

Draw
24.7%

Chesterfield
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

22.9%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

22.5%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stevenage Borough's form might have worsened.

Chesterfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stevenage Borough, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Stevenage Borough - Chesterfield Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marschall F. (G) 17. Pattenden J. 6. Sweeney D. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 3. Butler D. 4. Houghton J. 18. White H. 11. Roberts J. 10. Kemp D. 44. Patterson P. 19. Reid J.	1. Hemming Z. (G) 20. Daley-Campbell V. 22. Dunkley C. (C) 6. McFadzean K. 19. Gordon L. 13. Fleck J. 4. Naylor T. 24. Markanday D. 7. Mandeville L. 28. Berry-McNally J. 10. Bonis L.
Substitutes
9. Ahadme G. 13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 20. Campbell C. 16. Freestone L. 15. Goode C. 2. James-Wildin L. 24. Malcolm J. 26. Orford L. 8. Phillips D.	23. Boot R. (G) 40. Cook C. 27. Darcy R. 25. Dickson W. 44. Donacien J. 11. Duffy D. 5. Grimes J. 3. Lewis A. 30. Tanton D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Reid J. 🟨,
24', Pattenden J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Dunkley C. 🟨,
59', Piergianni C. 🟨,
61', 0 - 1, Bonis L. (Pen),
64', Daley-Campbell V. 🟨,
67', Reid J. ↓, Ahadme G. ↑,
68', Roberts J. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
68', White H. ↓, Orford L. ↑,
69', Berry-McNally J. ↓, Darcy R. ↑,
69', Mandeville L. ↓, Duffy D. ↑,
76', Houghton J. ↓, Phillips D. ↑,
76', Sweeney D. ↓, Malcolm J. ↑,
82', Butler D. 🟨,
85', Daley-Campbell V. ↓, Donacien J. ↑,
90+4', Fleck J. 🟨,
90+5', Darcy R. 🟨,

Preview

Stevenage is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chesterfield has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Stevenage may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Stevenage has had a series of home games.

In this match, Stevenage is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Stevenage won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League One
25.10.25	Stevenage Borough - Bradford City	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.10.25	Stevenage Borough - Crystal Palace U21	5:2 ✺
English League One
18.10.25	Lincoln City - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Stevenage Borough - Bromley	2:1 ✺
English League One
04.10.25	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLWW
- Chesterfield
English League Two
25.10.25	Tranmere Rovers - Chesterfield	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Chesterfield - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Chesterfield - Salford City	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Chesterfield - Burton Albion	1:0 ✺
English League Two
04.10.25	Colchester United - Chesterfield	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.01.18	Chesterfield - Stevenage Borough	0:1
23.12.17	Stevenage Borough - Chesterfield	5:1
English League One
10.03.12	Stevenage Borough - Chesterfield	N/A

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