Match Info

League One - Round 6

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday

Location: SPORTA Arena (Stevenage)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

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	Stevenage Borough		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.01	Watch
	3.25	3.30	2.15
	3.45	3.3	2.08	Watch
	3.52	3.53	2.16
	3.28	3.55	2.09	Watch
	3.4	3.45	2.08
	3.32	3.48	2.09	Watch
	3.4	3.45	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↑ (3.08)	3.45 ↑ (3.33)	2.09 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
27.8%

Draw
27.3%

Luton Town
44.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.4%

28.1%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

27%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	25%	58.3%

Stevenage Borough - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Stevenage will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Luton will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.78) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Setford T. (G) 15. Vancooten T. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 6. Freestone L. 2. James-Wildin L. 23. Thompson L. 8. Phillips D. 11. Roberts J. 10. Kemp D. 18. Sanderson O. 9. Magennis J.	24. Keeley J. (G) 2. Odoffin H. 5. Andersen M. 6. Johnston G. 12. Johnson J. 8. Walsh L. (C) 25. Jones I. 10. Donley J. 16. Gore D. 30. Kodua G. 9. Marshall C.
Substitutes
12. Barden D. (G) 27. Broggio B. 16. Casey K. 14. Earley S. 4. Houghton J. 28. Mellon M. 24. Smith M.	22. Fox H. 17. Mendel-Idowu T. 3. Naismith K. 45. Palmer K. 7. Richards J. 1. Shea J. (G) 21. Wells N.
Coaches
Revell A.	Wilshere J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Phillips D. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Kemp D. ⚽,
24', Wilshere J. 🟥,
26', Freestone L. 🟨,
30', Walsh L. 🟨,
44', Kemp D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Roberts J. ↓, Broggio B. ↑,
58', Kodua G. ↓, Palmer K. ↑,
58', Donley J. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
66', Marshall C. ↓, Wells N. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Magennis J. ⚽,
75', 2 - 1, Andersen M. ⚽, Palmer K. (A),
76', Kemp D. ↓, Houghton J. ↑,
76', Sanderson O. ↓, Earley S. ↑,
76', Magennis J. ↓, Mellon M. ↑,
80', Earley S. 🟨,
84', Odoffin H. ↓, Mendel-Idowu T. ↑,
85', Phillips D. ↓, Smith M. ↑,
90+3', James-Wildin L. 🟨,
90+5', Andersen M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Clark J. (Injury) Luker J. (Injury) Morris S. (Inactive) Sandal S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Pattenden J. (Inactive) Patterson P. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Stevenage won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Stevenage	8	3	3	2	12:8	4	12
14	Luton	8	3	2	3	16:15	1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Stevenage Borough - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 30.35%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Luton Town - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.58%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League One
05.09.26	Barnsley - Stevenage Borough	1:5 ✺
01.09.26	Peterborough United - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Stevenage Borough - Doncaster Rovers	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Stevenage Borough - Reading	0:3 ✺
English League One
22.08.26	Stevenage Borough - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTTLL
- Luton Town
English League One
05.09.26	Luton Town - Leyton Orient	1:1 ✺
02.09.26	Luton Town - Stockport County	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Mansfield Town - Luton Town	5:2 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.26	Chelsea - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
English League One
22.08.26	Luton Town - Notts County	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
10.01.26	Luton Town - Stevenage Borough	2:1
04.10.25	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	2:0
English League Cup
10.08.21	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	3:2 penalties
English League Two
10.02.18	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	1:1
14.10.17	Luton Town - Stevenage Borough	7:1
11.03.17	Luton Town - Stevenage Borough	0:2
20.08.16	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	2:1

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