Match Info

League One - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Lamex Stadium (Stevenage)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Stevenage Borough		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	5
	1.7	3.55	4.95
	1.74	3.62	5.39
	1.97	2.68	5.31	Watch
	1.75	3.58	5.05	Watch
	1.79	3.4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.79)	3.39 ↓ (3.4)	5.01 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
53.3%

Draw
27.8%

Exeter City
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

27.1%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

26.5%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Stevenage Borough - Exeter City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Stevenage (1.92) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Stevenage (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stevenage Borough will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stevenage Borough will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Stevenage (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marschall F. (G) 2. James-Wildin L. 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. 3. Butler D. 30. Lubala B. 4. Houghton J. 10. Kemp D. 18. White H. 20. Campbell C. 19. Reid J.	1. Whitworth J. (G) 26. Sweeney P. 5. Fitzwater J. 4. Turns E. 14. Niskanen I. 31. Doyle-Hayes J. 2. McMillan J. 21. Andrew D. 19. Cox S. 6. Brierley E. 27. Magennis J.
Substitutes
9. Ahadme G. 13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 16. Freestone L. 26. Orford L. 44. Patterson P. 11. Roberts J. 6. Sweeney D.	23. Bycroft J. (G) 12. Cole R. 8. Francis E. 17. Higgins A. 9. Wareham J. 37. Wilson K. 15. Yfeko J.
Coaches
Revell A.	Caldwell G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, White H. ⚽,
24', Cox S. ↓, Wareham J. ↑,
27', 1 - 1, Magennis J. ⚽, Niskanen I. (A),
38', Wareham J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
68', Campbell C. ↓, Patterson P. ↑,
68', Reid J. ↓, Roberts J. ↑,
68', Lubala B. ↓, Ahadme G. ↑,
74', McMillan J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
74', Sweeney P. ↓, Yfeko J. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Roberts J. ⚽, Patterson P. (A),
81', Roberts J. 🟨,
83', Brierley E. ↓, Wilson K. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 1.

Stevenage is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Exeter has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Exeter may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Stevenage has had a series of away games.

In this match, Stevenage is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Exeter: Borges P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Young J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Exeter: McDonald K. (Injury) Swinkels S. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 20:34. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Stevenage won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Stevenage Borough - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 51.55%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League One
13.09.25	Mansfield Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	AFC Wimbledon - Stevenage Borough	1:5 ✺
English League One
30.08.25	Stevenage Borough - Wycombe Wanderers	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Huddersfield Town - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
19.08.25	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWWLW
- Exeter City
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Exeter City - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
English League One
13.09.25	Exeter City - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Rotherham United - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Exeter City - Peterborough United	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Northampton Town - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
01.02.25	Stevenage Borough - Exeter City	4:1
21.09.24	Exeter City - Stevenage Borough	2:0
06.04.24	Exeter City - Stevenage Borough	1:0
16.12.23	Stevenage Borough - Exeter City	1:1
English League Cup
29.08.23	Exeter City - Stevenage Borough	2:1 penalties
English League Two
26.03.22	Exeter City - Stevenage Borough	2:1
09.10.21	Stevenage Borough - Exeter City	2:2

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