The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Exeter City 26.1%
Draw 28.8%
Port Vale 45.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.5%
28.1%
38.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.9%
27.6%
39.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Exeter City's form might have worsened.
Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Port Vale's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Exeter City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-5.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Port Vale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
90%
0%
10%
Exeter City - Port Vale Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 9 - 90%). Port Vale will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 71.4% – 100%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +0.25 - Exeter (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Exeter City will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 6 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 2. McMillan J. 5. Fitzwater J. 4. Turns E. 21. Andrew D. 14. Niskanen I. 6. Brierley E. 31. Doyle-Hayes J. 10. Aitchison J. 19. Cox S. 27. Magennis J. (C)
46. Gauci J. (G) 25. Humphreys C. 4. Heneghan B. 5. Hall C. 24. Kyle John 18. Croasdale R. 7. Byers G. 8. Garrity B. (C) 15. Gordon L. 17. Paton R. 44. Cole D.
Substitutes
23. Bycroft J. (G) 12. Cole R. 8. Francis E. 34. Oakes L. 9. Wareham J. 37. Wilson K. 20. Woodhouse L.
10. Brown D. 11. Curtis R. 22. Debrah J. 36. Faal M. 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 1. Marosi M. (G) 14. Ojo F.
Coaches
Caldwell G.
Moore D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Paton R. ⚽, Byers G. (A),
11', Aitchison J. ↓, Francis E. ↑,
12', Humphreys C. 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Cole D. ⚽, Paton R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Doyle-Hayes J. 🟨,
66', Paton R. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
70', Heneghan B. ↓, Debrah J. ↑,
71', Doyle-Hayes J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
71', Cox S. ↓, Wareham J. ↑,
77', Garrity B. ↓, Ojo F. ↑,
78', Cole D. ↓, Curtis R. ↑,
79', Gordon L. 🟨,
85', Turns E. ↓, Wilson K. ↑,
Preview
A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 3.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Exeter may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Exeter: Borges P.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Port Vale: Stockley J.
(Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Exeter: Cole R.
(Illness)
McDonald K.
(Injury)
Swinkels S.
(Knee Injury)
Yfeko J.
(Thigh Injury)
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.2:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.1:0.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Port Vale - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.45%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
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Whitworth J. (G) 
McMillan J. 
Turns E. 
Niskanen I. 
Doyle-Hayes J. 
Magennis J. (C) 
Gauci J. (G) 
Gordon L. 
Brown D. 
Faal M. 
Marosi M. (G) 
Ojo F. 
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