Match Info

League One - Round 37

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)


	Exeter City		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.75	1.66	Watch
	4.45	3.95	1.7
	4.61	4.07	1.77
	4.07	3.76	1.81	Watch
	4.2	3.7	1.73
	4.3	3.82	1.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.36 ↑ (3.82)	3.84 ↑ (3.52)	1.74 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
21.5%

Draw
24.4%

Cardiff City
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

26.1%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

25.5%

50.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Exeter City - Cardiff City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Cardiff City will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 20. Woodhouse L. 21. Andrew D. 14. Niskanen I. 6. Brierley E. 2. McMillan J. 17. Higgins A. 12. Cole R. 9. Wareham J. 27. Magennis J.	13. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 4. Osho G. 48. Lawlor D. 3. Bagan J. 6. Wintle R. 18. Robertson A. 11. Tanner O. 10. Colwill R. (C) 45. Ashford C. 8. Kellyman O.
Substitutes
10. Aitchison J. 23. Bycroft J. (G) 19. Cox S. 45. Cummins C. 29. McDonald K. 7. Mendes C. 28. Tuterov T.	12. Chambers C. 27. Colwill J. 2. Fish W. 47. Robinson C. 23. Scanlon C. 14. Turnbull D. 16. Willock C.
Coaches
Green D.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
31', 0 - 1, Colwill R. ⚽, Tanner O. (A),
34', 0 - 2, Colwill R. ⚽, Ashford C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
62', Andrew D. ↓, Cummins C. ↑,
62', Magennis J. ↓, Tuterov T. ↑,
62', Cole R. ↓, Aitchison J. ↑,
67', 0 - 3, Robertson A. ⚽, Wintle R. (A),
71', Tanner O. ↓, Willock C. ↑,
71', Robertson A. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
71', Higgins A. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
75', Kellyman O. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
75', Colwill R. ↓, Colwill J. ↑,
82', Wareham J. ↓, Cox S. ↑,
86', 0 - 4, Robinson C. ⚽, Colwill J. (A),
89', Bagan J. ↓, Scanlon C. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 16 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Exeter has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Cardiff has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Exeter may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cardiff is the team to beat.

There will not play in Exeter: Borges P. (Knee Injury) Yfeko J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cardiff: Davies I. (Inactive) King E. (Knee Injury) Salech Y. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Exeter: Doyle-Hayes J. (Inactive) Fitzwater J. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Exeter won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
10.03.26	Exeter City - Lincoln City	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Barnsley - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Exeter City - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Exeter City - Bolton Wanderers	1:5 ✺
21.02.26	Peterborough United - Exeter City	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLTLT
- Cardiff City
English League One
10.03.26	Barnsley - Cardiff City	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Cardiff City - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Doncaster Rovers - Cardiff City	0:4 ✺
21.02.26	Plymouth Argyle - Cardiff City	5:2 ✺
17.02.26	Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.12.25	Cardiff City - Exeter City	1:0
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Exeter City - Cardiff City	0:1
Club Friendly
28.07.16	Cardiff City - Exeter City	0:3

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